Russian commercial aviation is expected to suffer from lack of maintenance due to Western sanctions within months. Within a few years, most commercial aircraft will be completely grounded as major aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus stop supplying spare parts to Russia.

"They'll be able to fly pretty well for the next six months to a year, but then parts start to break and you need replacements, and you start to have safety issues," Jefferies bank analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said at a meeting on the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Commercial aircraft require heavy maintenance, which is usually done every six years, and will be affected by the sanctions because the required parts will not be available, Kahyaoglu said. "People will then no longer be able to fly in Russia.

"Russia has 789 commercial aircraft. They account for about 2.7 percent of the global fleet. The Russian airline Aeroflot has 187 aircraft with an average age of 6.3 years, according to its website.

Most aircraft operated by Russian airlines are leased from foreign leasing companies, including AerCap Holdings, the largest aircraft leasing company in the world. The Russian authorities will keep a number of aircraft themselves. However, the fate of the rest of the fleet worth about 10 billion dollars is uncertain.

According to Kahyaoglu, there is little hope that foreign owners will be able to retrieve their planes from Russia. "Those planes will be worthless in six years because they can't get the parts anymore.

"As of March 10, according to consultancy IBA, there were 523 aircraft from foreign lessors in Russia. Of these, 142 belong to AerCap Holdings, a Dutch public company headquartered in Dublin, and 35 to SMBC Aviation Capital, which is also Dublin-based and Japanese-owned. Under the sanctions of the European Union, the aircraft leasing companies have until March 28 to cancel the contracts in Russia.

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Re: Russian commercial aviation will suffer big
By: Aviation HQ to All on Tue Mar 15 2022 09:22 pm

Russian commercial aviation is expected to suffer from lack of maintenance due to Western sanctions within months. Within a few years, most commercial aircraft will be completely grounded as major aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus stop supplying spare parts to Russia.

I'm going to complain about this and I may get some flack, but it's worth it. Russian "international" aviation utilizes Airbus and Boeing aircraft although they do fly Russian-built aircraft as well. The idea that we are sanctioning a source of income for Russia (through their own taxes, etc.) is logical but we should continue to provide parts and equipment to support their fleet. Russia will continue to fly their airlines and if they begin to drop out of the sky or fail to get off the ground, the blame will fall on the US and EU even though it was the Russian government that caused the sanctions in the first place.

For example, we won't provide compressor fan blades for Aeroflot. Okay, they continue flying their 757s and 767s. Compressor fan failure, ejects through the wall of the engine, destroys the engine. On the ground is one thing. In the air, something completely different. Safety is paramount in aviation and should trump sanctions. What about oil or fuel, sanction it. If it can be sourced within the country, sanction it. If it can't, and it is for safety, then we should let it flow (but tax the export from the US and EU).

Just my two cents.

Brian Klauss <-> Dream Master
Caught in a Dream | caughtinadream.com a Synchronet BBS
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I'm going to complain about this and I may get some flack, but it's worth it. Russian "international" aviation utilizes Airbus and Boeing aircraft although
they do fly Russian-built aircraft as well. The idea that we are sanctioning
source of income for Russia (through their own taxes, etc.) is logical but we
should continue to provide parts and equipment to support their fleet. Russia >will continue to fly their airlines and if they begin to drop out of the sky o >fail to get off the ground, the blame will fall on the US and EU even though i
was the Russian government that caused the sanctions in the first place.

I don't know how much of their fleet they actually own. A large part of their fleet is leased and has been recalled. The owners want their aircraft back.

Russia does not intend to give them back, they might pay in rubles or something.. ;)

Russia gets what it deserves.

Russia could, if they wanted to stand up and rejoin the world community. So far they seem to have other plans.

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Re: Russian commercial aviation will suffer big
By: Alan Ianson to Brian Klauss on Tue Mar 15 2022 03:08 pm

I don't know how much of their fleet they actually own. A large part of their fleet is leased and has been recalled. The owners want their aircraft back.

They probably lease everything but it doesn't mean just because someone is pissed off you should take everything back. I can't remember how many CDs I lent an old girlfriend that I never got back after we parted ways. Or, how many hoodies an old girlfriend has of mine that I never got back. Just because you're mad at someone doesn't mean you should expect something in return.

Brian Klauss <-> Dream Master
Caught in a Dream | caughtinadream.com a Synchronet BBS
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Linux
* Origin: Caught in a Dream - caughtinadream.com (1:104/116)

I don't know how much of their fleet they actually own. A large part of
their fleet is leased and has been recalled. The owners want their aircraft >> back.

They probably lease everything but it doesn't mean just because someone is pissed off you should take everything back.

The invasion of a peaceful and sovereign state has nothing in common with being pissed off. It was peaceful before in the invasion.

The mounting daily human toll alone...

I can't remember how many CDs I lent an old girlfriend that I never got back after we parted ways. Or, how many hoodies an old girlfriend has of mine that I never got back. Just becaus you're mad at someone doesn't mean you should expect something in return.

I lost my Elton John vinyl collection to such an event, I understand. Oh well, I have a digital or CD copy today.

This is nothing like what you describe.

Russia as any nation or person is free to do as they will with their own property.

Russia is free to rejoin the world community if they choose to do that. They have not. It is my hope that they will at some point. It's a choice they are free to make as they please.

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* Origin: The Rusty MailBox - Penticton, BC Canada (1:153/757)