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  • ADVISORY 15A Rafael

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thursday, November 07, 2024 08:53:00
    916
    WTNT33 KNHC 071152
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
    700 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

    ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RAFAEL...


    SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.3N 84.9W
    ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
    ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
    discontinued.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
    monitor the progress of Rafael.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
    near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. Rafael is moving
    toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west at
    a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general
    motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is
    expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few
    days.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Some weakening is anticipated during the next few days.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
    miles (185 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
    970 mb (28.64 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
    WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

    RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
    today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across
    portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding
    and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf .

    SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
    of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several
    days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
    rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
    weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart

    $$
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