ACUS03 KWNS 250807
SWODY3
SPC AC 250807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley
into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across
northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over
much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed
max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO
Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A
cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as
it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast
States.

...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley...
A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the
day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast
TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped
during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight
as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear
(with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will
be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb.
This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce
severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary
layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could
result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts.

Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities
this outlook cycle.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

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ACUS03 KWNS 230821
SWODY3
SPC AC 230820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Discussion...
A lead southern-stream shortwave trough will tend to weaken across
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, while a
secondary shortwave trough modestly amplifies as it progresses east-southeastward over the southern Rockies toward far west Texas
Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms may linger during the day across
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast, and possibly into other parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Related to the secondary shortwave
trough, isolated elevated thunderstorm development may also occur
late Wednesday night across far eastern New Mexico into
west/northwest Texas including the Texas Panhandle, with forecast
soundings plausibly showing a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE across this
region by daybreak (12z) Thursday.

Additionally, a few thunderstorms could again occur near the coastal
Pacific Northwest/northern California Wednesday night as a shortwave trough/frontal band approaches and mid-level lapse rates steepen.
Little or no severe-weather potential is currently expected with any
of these scenarios, largely attributable to minimal buoyancy in each
instance.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

$$
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