ACUS01 KWNS 301241
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent
surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will
contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the
CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes
in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this
potential should remain limited/sporadic overall.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131300
SWODY1
SPC AC 131258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the
lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two. Occasional severe winds may also
develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today
across parts of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South as an upper
trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the OH Valley.
Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper
trough are forecast to remain well north of the inland-advancing
warm sector. Even so, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should
develop by this afternoon as a remnant/weak surface low off the LA
Coast moves slowly inland. Filtered daytime heating of the moist
low-level airmass should result in modest instability developing by
this afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor
(see 12Z JAN/LIX soundings). Low-level southerly flow will not be
overly strong across the lower MS Valley, but gradual veering and
strengthening of winds with height through mid levels should support
sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.

A few marginal supercells/clusters may pose an isolated threat for
strong to damaging winds as they spread eastward across LA/MS this
afternoon and evening. Enough low-level shear should also be present
to foster some updraft rotation and the threat for a tornado or two,
with an isolated severe threat potentially continuing into tonight
across parts of southwest AL and vicinity. The warm sector will
become increasingly pinched off with northward extent in MS and
western TN, with convection generally expected to outpace the
low-level moisture return. Given the expected mismatch of stronger forcing/shear farther north and better instability to the south,
have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk this update, with some
expansion based on latest guidance trends.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates associated with an
eastward-moving upper trough will help support weak instability
today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (reference 12Z
UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will
support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving
eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the
forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small
hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have
a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which
should limit 0-1 km SRH.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/13/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141251
SWODY1
SPC AC 141250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North
Carolina this evening/tonight.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the
OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this
occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across
the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal
waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain
very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP
runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track.
Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak
boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across
parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based
convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared
environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains
evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still
appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the
Marginal Risk with this update.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough
tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature
will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame,
associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will
contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest.
Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding
the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of
showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related
low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability,
though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential.

..Weinman.. 11/16/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171632
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough
over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the
middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua
by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively
tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In
the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually
evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the
northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period.
Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf
will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward
across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High
Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance
northward from north TX into OK late.

...Southern Great Plains...
The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately
moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg.
The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper
60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the
Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will
contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across
parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite
considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt
500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight,
large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered
thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity
and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection
attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance
indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector.
A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX
and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low
track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts
will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the
intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular
development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely
maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless,
elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered
severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall
line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward
into southwest OK late.

..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181301
SWODY1
SPC AC 181259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe
gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north
Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few
tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and
evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains
this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and
mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level
jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late
afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids
in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central
Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over
western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with
the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest
late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward
across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley
through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley
late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

...Southern Plains...
With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to
50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK
into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional
strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a
continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS
tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better
low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next
couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z
soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows
gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it
moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated
threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could
persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly
marginal with eastward extent.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold
front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before
potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early
evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more
buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR,
where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating,
even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will
remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the
ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level
southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front.
Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1
km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution
guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells
developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a
Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account
for this potential.

...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to
the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK
into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This
convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate
environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow
near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability
will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may
pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps
marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have
expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the
mid MO Valley.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191254
SWODY1
SPC AC 191252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today.

...Central Gulf Coast...
The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs,
will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this
morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into
Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low
to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL
along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed
12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread
pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon.
Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across
the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near
the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
overall severe threat isolated.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern features synoptic-scale
cyclones on either side of the CONUS:

1. In the East, the cyclone core is elongated west-southwest/east-
northeast from WV to southern New England, occasionally exhibiting
two centers at 500 mb. This cyclone should pivot offshore
gradually, with a more consolidated center south of RI and east of
NJ by 12Z tomorrow. Associated thunder tonight should remain
offshore.

2. For the Pacific cyclone, a double center was evident as well,
with the strongest, closest, and most important one being near
45N131W. This is becoming the primary low as the other one well to
the west devolves into an open shortwave trough. The eastern low
should pivot northward, offshore from the Northwest Coast, toward
Vancouver Island. Meanwhile, a series of small shortwaves and
vorticity lobes will move ashore in the preceding southwest flow,
predominantly this afternoon through tonight -- each contributing
shots of cooling/destabilization aloft, and atop the weakly unstable
marine air mass. Forecast soundings accordingly suggest that the
midlevel inversion should rise/cool such that modest buoyancy
(overland MUCAPE generally under 250 J/kg) extends upward into icing
layers suitable for at least isolated/brief lightning, especially
from around 00Z onward. A few thunderstorms are possible near the
coast, as well as embedded in the deep low/middle-level moisture
fetch impinging on higher terrain in northern CA.

..Edwards.. 11/22/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231243
SWODY1
SPC AC 231241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal
Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the
central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48
states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms.
A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel
imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the
Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes
will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms
offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward.

One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to
northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle-
level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland
today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small,
closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border,
while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern
Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel
temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the
Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective
towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though
strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore
cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too
isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a belt of relatively strong flow will bend
cyclonically from CA to the central Great Plains, changing curvature
through a low-amplitude, eastward moving synoptic ridge over the
Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, then cyclonically again across
the Mid-Atlantic and New England. A long-lasting, deeply occluded
cyclone will move eastward from the Canadian Maritime Provinces
through the period. Upstream, a smaller cyclone -- initially
located over southern SK -- will move slowly eastward to southern MB
by 12Z tomorrow, with trough southward over the Dakotas. However,
too little moisture will be available for a general thunderstorm
outlook. Farther west, a synoptic-scale cyclone offshore from the
Olympic Peninsula and Vancouver Island will pivot slowly southward
then eastward through tonight, but will remain over Pacific waters.
Intervening ridging should remain over the northern Rockies and
vicinity. However, cold air aloft and steep low/middle-level lapse
rates will overlie a moist marine layer, supporting isolated to
widely scattered, episodic thunder mainly offshore. Some of this
activity may move inland before dissipating in more-stable low-level conditions.

A shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery south and
east of the ridge from the Yellowstone region across the northern
Great Basin to central CA -- is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the central Rockies and central Plains through the period,
phasing with the SK/MB low by 12Z tomorrow. The associated cold
front was drawn at 11Z today across an area of low pressure
extending from northeastern NE to southwestern KS, then arching over southeastern CO. A warm front was drawn over southeastern KS and
southwestern MO, with a secondary warm front over southern IA and
northern IL. The low should consolidate today across northeastern
KS into northern MO, and move to near the southwestern shore of Lake
Michigan by the end of the period, when the cold front reaches to
near a line from BMI-STL-FSM-SPS-HOB. Scattered elevated showers
are possible late tonight near and north of the warm front, across
parts of northeastern IL, WI, Lower MI, IN, and OH. However, the
warm conveyor will lack rich moisture, and forecast soundings
reasonably suggest buoyancy will be too shallow and strongly capped
for an areal thunderstorm threat.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/24/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251228
SWODY1
SPC AC 251226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS
this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now
centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to
accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part
of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs,
a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery
from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough
will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time
frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay,
southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z.

The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a
low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak
low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern
Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern
parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold
front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC,
northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf
shelf waters to near BRO.

Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over
Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected
to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it
approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast
between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from
north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in
midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for
isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist
Pacific boundary layer near the coast.

...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys...
Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in
the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor
moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater
moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow
trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow
layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower
Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this
evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely
above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly
remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs
appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the
prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to
northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for
any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of
surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal
and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be
revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in
succeeding outlook cycles.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051251
SWODY1
SPC AC 051250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a
portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper-level longwave troughing has become well-established over
the western CONUS. That will persist through this and more outlook
periods, as a series of synoptic to large shortwave troughs
traverses the associated cyclonic-flow field. The leading such
perturbation -- now located from the central Plains south-
southwestward over the southern High Plains to far west TX -- will
eject northeastward and weaken. By 00Z, the residual, strongly
positively tilted trough should extend from a vorticity max over
western WI, across central/southwestern MO to central TX. The
perturbation will deamplify greatly overnight and accelerate to a
position near the western QC/ON border, Lake Huron and IN by 12Z.
Meanwhile, an upstream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-
channel imagery over ID -- will dig southeastward and strengthen
greatly through the period. By 12Z, it should be oriented
northeast/southwest through a developing 500-mb low over the Four
Corners.

The 11Z surface analysis showed an elongated area of low pressure
from southern WI to northwestern MO, with cold front through central
OK and north-central/central TX. The front was preceded by an
extensive convective band and associated outflow boundary from
central IL to central AR, east TX, and deep south TX. By 00Z, the
front should catch up (or nearly so) to what remains of the
convective boundary, with the combined baroclinic zone extending
from a consolidated low over northern WI across the Mid-South region
to the northwestern Gulf shelf waters off TX. By 12Z, the front
should extend from Lower MI across western portions of KY/TN/MS to
southwestern LA and the northwestern Gulf.

...Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys...
The ongoing convective band, near the western edge of the "Marginal
Risk" area, should weaken overall through mid-morning. However, an
isolated damaging gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the
meantime with any associated or preceding cell that may take
advantage of lingering favorable deep shear and high theta-e, in a northward-narrowing corridor.

After a relative lull of a few hours, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along the boundary this afternoon into
early evening, with isolated damaging gusts and/or a tornado
possible. Afternoon boundary-layer destabilization is anticipated
ahead of the convective boundary, from both fragmented/cloud-
modulated surface heating and low-level theta-e advection. A
corridor of surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will
persist an expand slightly northward ahead of the boundary. With no
antecedent EML and minimal MLCINH, this should offset modest
midlevel lapse rates enough to result in effectively uninhibited
buoyancy, supporting an increase in convective coverage and local
intensity this afternoon. Peak MLCAPE should range from around
500-800 J/kg over a narrow corridor of the Mid-South,
widening/increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg over southern LA. By
contrast, lift along the boundary, and in the form of deep-layer
ascent preceding the weakening mid/upper trough, will be greater
over the Mid-South, until some nebulous point where too little
instability exists to support organized convection. The outlook has
been elongated northward somewhat to cover the marginal-buoyancy
plume near the Mississippi River.

...WI...
Isolated to widely scattered, shallow thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon, in an arc near the front and the organizing surface
low. A few cells may produce damaging gusts. A brief tornado also
may occur, especially with any cells that can linger within a narrow
zone of overlap between favorably, isallobarically backed near-
surface winds and weak boundary-layer instability. A low-confidence
and quite conditional scenario exists here, with abundant antecedent
clouds and precip likely to limit destabilization for most of the
day. Forecast soundings suggest enough large-scale ascent aloft to
cool midlevels a degree or two C, though lapse rates still will be
meager. Areas that can experience a couple hours of relatively
unimpeded heating may attain 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/05/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061249
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outermost
fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning
into the evening, across the Keys and the far southwestern Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, mean troughing will remain over the Rocky
Mountain States as a strong subsynoptic trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Four Corners region -- strengthens
to a closed cyclone. The associate 500-mb low is expected to become better-developed throughout the period as it closes off and
retrogrades south-southwestward across AZ. In response to these
developments, height rises are forecast across the southern Plains
and Gulf Coast region, while ridging also builds westward from the
Bermuda high. In turn, this should shift Hurricane Rafael westward
toward the central Gulf, following today's crossing of western Cuba,
per NHC forecast.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low over ON north
of Lake Huron, with cold front across Lower MI, IN, western parts of
KY/TN/MS, central LA, and the shelf waters off the TX Gulf Coast.
Under height rises and weakening/largely parallel flow aloft, the
frontal segment south of about I-40 should become quasistationary
through the remainder of the period. Given those factors, weak
midlevel lapse rates, and negligible mid/upper support, associated thunderstorms should have an unconditional severe potential below 5%
for gusts and less than 2% for tornado, with no large-hail threat.

...FL Keys and vicinity...
Although Rafael will be pivoting more westward away from the region
than previous forecast cycles suggested, and is a relatively small
hurricane, the influence of ambient shear imparts a northeastward
tilt to the overall convective pattern. This will lead to the
passage of peripheral cells and perhaps (over the Lower Keys)
banding features. The track forecast also should result in the
largest low-level shear remaining west and south of EYW, but
still-favorable hodographs passing across the outlook area from this
afternoon into tonight. As such, the outlook lines are shifted
slightly westward, in keeping with NHC track-forecast trends, but
still kept at 5% "slight" levels over the Lower Keys for this cycle.

See latest NHC advisories for forecast track/intensity of Rafael,
and tropical-related watches/warnings.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/06/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071250
SWODY1
SPC AC 071248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a tornado or two
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...Synopsis...
A closed and temporarily cut-off, mid/upper-level cyclone was
drifting eastward to southeastward over the Desert Southwest and
Four Corners regions, and centered near INW. A large, well-
developed, baroclinic-leaf formation was apparent in IR and
moisture-channel imagery in its eastern semicircle, across much of
NM and CO, and extending across the central High Plains. The 500-mb
low is forecast to move slowly to central NM through the period,
while a shortwave trough now north of the low pivots around the southern/southeaster side of the cyclone tonight. Associated height
falls and large-scale ascent will gradually overspread west TX and
the southern High Plains, both in the form of DCVA nearer to the
cyclone core, and warm advection over much of the southern Plains to
its east.

Meanwhile, per latest NHC forecasts, Hurricane Rafael will continue
to move westward away from the Keys and Cuba, toward the central/
south-central Gulf. This will occur south of an arc of mid/upper
ridging extending from the subtropical Atlantic across FL and the
north-central to southwestern Gulf.

At the surface, the key feature for today's forecast will be a cold
front -- drawn at 11Z from the Ohio Valley across central AR, to
near a TXK-ERV line and becoming stationary to warm westward to a
low near the Rio Grande, south of 6R6. Another low was drawn
between MAF-FST, and warm frontogenesis apparent to its east-
southeast likely will persist and result in effective northward
displacement of the western segment of the main frontal zone with
time today. As the aforementioned shortwave trough pivots toward
the region, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin region of west TX, consolidating the previously
elongated, multi-centered low-pressure area. The low should move
northward or north-northeastward tonight, toward the Caprock region
of northwest TX, with a cold front to its south extending to the Big
Bend region. Meanwhile, the warm-frontal segment should advance
northward over west-central TX, though considerable mesoscale
uncertainty remains as to how far, given:
1. The strength of the ambient continental/polar airmass to its
north and
2. Probable reinforcement by convection/precip on the cool side
much of today.

...West and central TX...
Predominantly elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop today
and gradually increase in coverage while moving northward over
central and northwest TX, in a weakly capped plume of strengthening
warm advection, moisture transport and ascent to LFC. Isolated
severe hail is possible with this activity, though lack of
substantial buoyancy should limit overall severe potential to
marginal in coverage and intensity.

As that process continues, a diurnally heated slot of return-flow boundary-layer air, containing increasingly unstable, surface-based
parcels, will spread from south-central TX, the Rio Grande Valley
and the southern Hill Country northwestward toward the frontal and
cyclogenetic regimes. Diurnal heating and moist advection are
expected to yield favorable warm-sector destabilization. Surface
dewpoints increasing into the low 60s F in northern areas and upper
60s to near 70 F over southern parts of the outlook will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the
cold front and south of about I-20, with sharp reductions across the
front toward the upper cyclone, and northward into the ambient
rain-cooled airmass.

Meanwhile, large-scale ascent will continue to increase gradually on
both sides of the front, peaking late overnight. These processes
will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from
late afternoon into tonight, along the front and over higher terrain
in the Big Bend region. Some of this activity may be supercellular
for a few hours, with all severe hazards possible. Forecast
hodographs indicate some tornado potential, especially near the low
and if a discrete storm can interact with a favorably aligned
segment of the front while maintaining warm-sector surface inflow. Aforementioned mesoscale uncertainties preclude a more-focused,
unconditional 5% tornado area at this time. The delay in the
strongest forcing for ascent after the peak buoyancy and the
potential for evolution to extensively messy modes also renders
tornado potential quite conditional. Convective coverage overall
should increase to scattered/numerous, expand to both sides of the
front as cooling aloft overspreads the region, and render much
messier convective mode. Large hail will be possible on either side
of the front, especially with relatively sustained/discrete cells,
and damaging gusts will be most probable with convection moving
into/through the warm sector.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/07/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081254
SWODY1
SPC AC 081252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill
Country and parts of central/east Texas through this evening. The
most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential appears to be
over north-central Texas.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern features a closed, temporarily cut-off, synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered over central NM. As a
strong, basal shortwave trough pivots northeastward across eastern
NM and the TX Panhandle today, the 500-mb low will shift east-
northeastward toward CAO by 00Z. Overnight, the low should track north-northeastward, reaching the GLD vicinity by 12Z. Height falls
should occur over central/north TX today, then becoming neutral to
slightly rising overnight.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a frontal-wave low near SWW, with a
cold front south-southwestward between DRT-6R6. A warm front was
drawn from the low through some rain-cooled air to near MWL, then east-southeastward over southern fringes of the Metroplex to between
LFK-ESF. The low is expected to move northward to near the
northeastern corner of the TX Panhandle by 00Z and occlude, while
the occluded/cold front reaches western OK, north-central/central
TX, to near LRD. The warm front should drift northward over north- central/northeast TX, with its progress slowed by increasing
precip/convection to its north. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should get
stacked with the 500-mb center over northwestern KS, with the cold
front reaching east TX and the shelf waters off the TX Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael is forecast to remain well-removed from
land this period, moving generally westward over the central to
west-central Gulf then slowing/meandering after this period. See
NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity info on Rafael.

...North to central TX...
An ongoing area of convection over parts of north TX and southern OK
is expected to shift northward over increasingly elevated and less-
unstable inflow parcels and weaken through midday. Meanwhile,
closer to the cold front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the next several hours through early afternoon,
evolving into a nearly solid convective band with embedded
supercells and bow/LEWP formations possible. This activity should
shift eastward over central and north TX through early evening,
offering at least marginal potential for all severe hazards.

Meanwhile, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the
warm sector and along/north of the warm front. This activity should
move northward to northeastward. Any sustained, relatively discrete
cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm
sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate
with a threat for all hazards (hail, damaging to severe gusts and
mesoscale peak in tornado potential) also present. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest/
southeast very near or even across the DFW Metroplex. This will
yield an increased severe threat from north to south into more-
unstable inflow air, and within the southern part of the relatively high-vorticity gradient itself. Given the superposition of these
foci and the expected favorable parameter space, the north-central
TX part of the outlook is being upgraded for all hazards this cycle.

Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints already are present in the
warm sector, and will shift north slowly, in step with the warm
front, before the main north-south band overtakes the region. This
should occur during the afternoon when low-level, warm-sector
instability is maximized away from convection. Despite modest lapse
rates aloft (manifest in mid/upper-level stable layers sampled by
the 12Z FWD sounding), a northwestward-narrowing, triangular
corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE is expected. Veering winds
with height are forecast to continue, with hodograph curvature/size
largest along the warm front, and enough deep shear (effective-shear
magnitudes 35-45 kt in central/north TX, weakening southward and
eastward) to support occasional supercell structures. Overnight,
supportive large-scale ascent and the elevated LLJ each should shift
northward away from the area, while the main band of convective-
scale forcing shifts into east TX and weakens.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/08/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091226
SWODY1
SPC AC 091224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude
through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near
GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing
westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by
00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the
NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across
the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land,
while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement.

In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast
to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in
this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and
similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens
with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially
south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based
parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm
front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE
should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000
J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be
stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is
sufficient.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101228
SWODY1
SPC AC 101226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Synopsis...
General upper-air pattern deamplification is expected over most of
the CONUS through the period, except over:
1. The West Coast (height falls ahead of an approaching,
high-amplitude synoptic trough) and
2. The Great Lakes (height falls preceding the ejection of the
cyclone now centered over northwest IA). The formerly
cut-off/larger cyclone is rejoining the prevailing westerlies, and
will accelerate eastward and weaken over the Great Lakes. This will
happen as a strong shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel
imagery over eastern/southern AB -- digs east-southeastward toward
Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow, while forming a closed or nearly
closed 500-mb low.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken as its low-
level center and deep convection get more displaced from each other,
per NHC discussions. The circulation is forecast to continue
weakening, as the low-level vortex loops around the central/west-
central Gulf today, then shift southwestward thereafter. Refer to
NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity of Rafael.

In between those features, a plume of moist low-level air, cooling
northward at the surface and aloft, will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, near and east of an occluded/cold frontal
zone drawn at 11Z from southern IL across westernmost portions of
KY/TN, western MS, central/southwestern LA, and TX coastal waters.

...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley...
Overall severe potential will be limited by lack of stronger shear
in the south (closer to the coast) where low-level theta-e is
largest, and lack of surface-based instability in the north. Some
model soundings suggest that surface-based parcels and marginal deep
shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range) may overlap
this afternoon over portions of the Tennessee Valley to lower Ohio
Valley. While this will need to be monitored, lack of backing in
low-level flow will limit both convergence and hodograph size, amid
weak deep-layer lapse rates and potentially messy convective mode.
At this time, the severe threat appears too low and conditional for
an outlook area.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/10/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 110521
SWODY1
SPC AC 110520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the
mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while
progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One
emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to
cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another
impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great
Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the
trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the
Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday.

As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North
America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its
east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is
forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast
of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and
Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through
much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the
Gulf Coast states.

...Southeast...
In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level
perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the
southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing
for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm
development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period.
However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization
and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally
focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning.

...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada...
Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C
around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the
day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection
capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into
the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western
slopes of the Sierra Nevada.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121254
SWODY1
SPC AC 121252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this
evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across
the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will
encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the
northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return
northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although
its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that
convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the
OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit
initiation.

A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this
evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm
advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet
increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough.
While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 011300
SWODY1
SPC AC 011258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic flow aloft will continue
to prevail east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the
West. A cool/stable pattern via the influence of high pressure and
continental trajectories will considerably limit convective
potential today and tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake
effect bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the potential for
lightning flashes should remain limited. Across far south Texas,
warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas coast
could lead to an increase in convection, although the potential for thunderstorms inland is expected to remain low.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/01/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021252
SWODY1
SPC AC 021250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with
continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions
east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep
convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur
across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively
rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent.
Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of
lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031301
SWODY1
SPC AC 031259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion including South Texas...
A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be
reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough
over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and
spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas,
weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak
low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further
influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm
advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland
areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional
lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight.
Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the
immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH
and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak,
and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 041259
SWODY1
SPC AC 041258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the
ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana...
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the
early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with
persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak
surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone
of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland
advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a
related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse
rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer
cloud cover and muted heating.

While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and
regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the
zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing
frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based
destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast,
and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly
rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the
supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited
inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak
parcel accelerations.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward
today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary
speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over
Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over
the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the
southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity.

Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms
may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is
expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning
flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated
convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance
of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep
South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these
scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 061255
SWODY1
SPC AC 061254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms
are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to
East Texas.

...Discussion...
Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and
eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level
trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern
portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few
thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low,
potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New
Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment.
Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into
tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across
Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly
across central/north-central Texas tonight.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 071257
SWODY1
SPC AC 071255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the
Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more
east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of
progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada.

Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm
potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north
Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast
Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport.
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy.
Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near
coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an
inland-advancing front.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081243
SWODY1
SPC AC 081242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with
an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough
advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the
Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered
elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern
Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the
ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is
expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and
Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection
and weak instability, severe weather is not expected.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091259
SWODY1
SPC AC 091257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for
severe thunderstorms currently appears low.

...Southeast States...
Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and
Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic
seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until
modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and
Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front
accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas.
Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm
sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into
eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee.

The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will
maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite
40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will
modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of
overly organized convection for much of the day.

The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight
as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface
low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide
sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As
mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing
guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with
the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception.

Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the
potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101240
SWODY1
SPC AC 101239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the central Gulf Coast region into central/southern Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle through tonight.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, mean troughing over the central CONUS will
evolve from positively to near neutrally tilted through the period,
in conjunction with two predominant subsynoptic-scale processes:
1. South-southeastward digging of a cyclone now over extreme
northern MB, reaching the MB/ON border east of Lake Winnipeg by 12Z
tomorrow;
2. Eastward shift of a strong, basal shortwave trough -- now
evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern NM into
south-central AZ -- absorbing a weaker/trailing perturbation and
reaching from middle TN to central LA by the end of the period.

As this occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from a low
near BNA southwestward across northwestern MS, central LA, middle TX
Coast, and deep south TX -- should extend from western PA across the
southern Appalachians and southwestern AL, to southeastern LA, by
00Z. A low-level, prefrontal confluence/convergence zone may
intensify this evening and tonight over portions of the FL
Panhandle, southeastern AL and southwestern GA. The cold front
should approach and perhaps overtake the confluence zone by 12Z, as
it reaches a position from central PA across the western Carolinas,
to near a MCN-AAF line, then over the northeastern/central Gulf.

...Southeast...
Widely scattered, ongoing thunderstorms clusters are apparent across
portions of southern MS into southeastern LA, with a marginal
potential for a brief tornado or strong-severe gust. See SPC
mesoscale discussion 2255 for near-term coverage of this scenario.
Similarly sporadic, isolated and marginal tornado and severe-gust
potential will exist throughout today and tonight with convection
along and just ahead of the cold front, as well as slowly increasing
convective coverage from late afternoon through overnight in the
prefrontal convergence zone. The warm-sector environment will
remain characterized by a nearly saturated boundary layer with
surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to near 70 F along the
coast, to mid 60s well inland, amidst nearly moist-adiabatic
low-level lapse rates. Somewhat greater boundary-layer instability
is possible this afternoon in the inflow to the near-frontal
convection, as modest heating occurs through cloud breaks. That my
offset weak midlevel lapse rates enough to support peak MLCAPE
around 1000 J/kg from southeastern LA to south-central AL,
decreasing northeastward as well as eastward. An axis of lesser
buoyancy -- with MLCAPE remaining in the 500-800 J/kg range, should
shift eastward tonight near the confluence line, in support of
convection there.

Deep shear should increase from late this afternoon through tonight
with the more neutral tilt of the larger-scale trough aloft, and
related tightening of the mid/upper height gradient over the warm
sector. While strongest flow aloft will remain behind the front, effective-shear magnitudes of 45-55 kt and elongated low-level
hodographs are forecast from the northeastern Gulf Coast to the
Carolinas. As the basal shortwave trough approaches (but remains
behind the cold front), the LLJ should strengthen to 45-55 kt
tonight over southern GA, reaching 55-65 kt over eastern NC, with
lengthening but only somewhat curved low-level hodographs. The
northeastward extent of the conditional severe potential may extend
into near-coastal SC/NC; however, poor low- and middle-level lapse
rates (with stable layers apparent in forecast soundings) are
precluding any expansion of unconditional probabilities
northeastward for this outlook cycle. The main (yet marginal)
severe threat for the Carolinas still appears to hold off until
early day 2.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 12/10/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible from the
eastern Carolinas to southern New England. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may occur southward into portions of Florida.

...Synopsis...
Moisture-channel imagery showed a substantial mid/upper trough
extending from a cyclone over the MB/ON border southward over the
Mississippi Valley to a strong, basal shortwave trough over portions
of MS/LA. The latter feature is forecast to pivot eastward to the
TN Valley and FL Panhandle through 18Z, then turn northeastward
across WV, western VA and the west-central Carolinas by 00Z. As
that occurs, the entire synoptic trough will become more negatively
tilted, with preceding speed maxima of 160-180-kt at 250 mb, 110-125
kt at 500 mb, and 70-85 kt at 700 mb over parts of the Atlantic
Coast States.

A cold front precedes the main mid/upper trough, and was analyzed at
11Z from east-central PA over western VA to a weak low near AVL,
then across central/southwestern GA and the west-central FL
Panhandle, to the central Gulf. The front should sweep eastward
across VA, the Carolinas, GA and most of FL today, with a 00Z
position progged from VT across western Long Island, over Atlantic
waters to near or just offshore HSE, then southwestward over more of
the Atlantic to southeastern FL. The front should proceed offshore
from the remaining Atlantic Coast by around 12Z tomorrow.

...East Coast States...
An ongoing, prefrontal band of convection, with scattered to widely
scattered embedded thunderstorms, was apparent in radar, satellite
and lightning data from the northeastern Gulf northeastward across
the FL Big Bend region and southern/eastern GA. This activity
should proceed eastward across much of FL and offshore from GA
today, with isolated potential for damaging to severe gusts and/or a
tornado, as it encounters foregoing diabatic surface destabilization
and boundary-layer theta-e advection. The main changes this cycle
are to the associated "marginal area, to:
1. Trim on the southwest edge in deference to ongoing convective
trends (faster than earlier guidance), and
2. Add somewhat more of central/southwestern FL to the
5%-wind/Marginal area to give the trailing part of the main squall
line more room to weaken, as diurnal heating of a moist airmass
somewhat offsets weakening trends in both large-scale and frontal
forcings.

Meanwhile, the most dense potential for damaging to severe gusts is
expected to develop farther north today across central/eastern parts
of the Carolinas, northeastward along the coast into southern New
England. As the shortwave and synoptic troughs assume negative
tilt, synoptic to frontal-scale lift will increase and overlap,
resulting in a narrow band of convection (some with lightning, but
potentially a majority without) firming up into the Mid-Atlantic and
perhaps southern New England. The aforementioned deep-layer wind
maxima will contribute to fast embedded cell motions and downward
momentum transfer within this band. Intense associated gusts
sporadically should penetrate a deeply near-neutral to slightly
above moist-adiabatic layer of lapse rates -- with a shallow
near-surface absolutely stable layer possible -- from around the
Delmarva region northeastward, beneath MUCAPE of around 300-800
J/kg. Buoyancy will become more surface-based with southern extent
from southeastern VA southward, with the greatest values of
low-level shear/SRH and largest hodographs expected over eastern NC
in and near the area of relatively peaked tornado probabilities.
Line-embedded supercells and/or QLCS mesovortices will be the main
tornado concern, with the wind threat more generalized to any
sustained, bow/LEWP segments within the line.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 12/11/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121218
SWODY1
SPC AC 121217

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level cyclone -- initially over northern ON -- will
break down as another develops across central QC today, within the
same larger-scale troughing regime. As the resulting low ejects
northeastward over northern QC, and synoptic ridging moves from the
Rockies to the Plains States, heights will rise over most of the central/eastern CONUS. The air mass east of the Rockies mostly will
remain too dry and/or stable for thunderstorms, behind the cold
frontal passage related to the departing eastern trough. One
exception may be in the lake-effect regimes east of the lower Great
Lakes, where steep low/middle-level lapse rates will support plumes
of heavy convective snow. However, shallowness of buoyancy/ELs
precludes more than very brief/isolated lightning potential at most,
and the threat appears too conditional and limited for outlook areas.

A cyclone now located off the coast of OR and northwestern CA will
move inland and devolve slightly to a strong shortwave trough,
reaching northern CA and western/southern NV by 00Z. By 12Z, the
trough will reach southern ID, UT and AZ. Strong DCVA/cooling aloft
is expected immediately to its east today and tonight, from the
Great Basin to the Colorado Plateau and UT/southwestern WY.
However, with dry air in low levels over most of the region,
midlevel moisture/buoyancy should remain too weak and isolated for
enough lightning to justify an outlook area.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 12/12/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131244
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
As heights rise in the East following the departure of a substantial synoptic-scale trough, two strong shortwave troughs will progress
through the midlatitude westerlies upstream, and influence thunder
potential across the western/central CONUS:

1. A leading perturbation -- now apparent over the eastern Great
Basin and southern ID -- should extend from southeastern WY across
east-central CO to eastern NM by 00Z. By the end of the period, the
trough should reach central portions of SD/NE/KS and northwestern
OK, while deepening. A closed 500-mb low may develop on the trough,
either then or within a few hours into day 2, over south-central/
southeastern NE. Strong, foregoing low-level warm advection and
moisture transport will persist through the period, atop a
relatively stable near-surface layer. Increasing thunderstorm
coverage is expected after about 06Z from the middle/upper TX Coast
to the lower Missouri Valley, as increasingly moist parcels above
that stable layer reach LFC. This will occur in concordance with
steepening low/middle-level lapse rates and decreasing MUCINH,
mainly related to the warm advection (but also late DCVA over
northwestern parts of the outlook area). Small hail may fall from
the strongest cells; however, forecast soundings indicate effective
shear, buoyancy and inflow-layer moisture content should be too
small for a severe threat.

2. The trailing shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-
channel imagery over the North Pacific around 40N150W -- will move
rapidly eastward and amplify, with preceding large-scale ascent
reaching the CA/OR coastline after 06Z on either side of a low-level
cold front. While lapse rates in the frontal band should be modest,
and buoyancy meager, areas of MUCAPE around 50-200 J/kg, rooted near
700 mb -- may extend deeply enough into suitable icing layers to
support isolated lightning.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/13/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141253
SWODY1
SPC AC 141251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND NEARBY COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to marginally severe, low-topped thunderstorms are
possible for a few more hours across the Bay Area and nearby coastal California.

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS features two
primary troughs promoting convective potential this period, from
east to west:
1. A strong shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over the central Plains from west-central NE to western OK,
with a 500-mb low apparent near HYS. The low is expected to move
eastward along I-70 into near COU by 00Z, with trough northward to
southern IA and southward to southern AR. By the end of the period,
the low should reach northeastern IL around IKK, along a trough
aligned roughly from MKE-BNA.
2. A synoptic-scale trough from the Gulf of Alaska to offshore from
the CA Coast, including a small cyclone off western WA and a basal
shortwave now approaching coastal central/northern CA.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over KS between ICT-FRI,
with cold front southwestward across southwestern OK and portions of west-central/southwest TX. By 00Z, the low should become nearly
stacked under the 500-mb low over north-central MO, with cold front
extending over northwestern AR, and northeast TX, to near AUS and
between DRT-LRD. Substantial weakening of the front should be
underway by then, especially south of the Ozarks, with surface winds
less than 10 kt on both sides of the front over east and south TX.
The TX portion of the front should nearly dissipate overnight.

...Bay Area and vicinity...
Isolated strong-severe gusts and hail near severe limits are
possible this morning near the coast, in about a 150-nm-long
corridor centered just south of SFO.

A low-level frontal band precedes the basal shortwave trough over
CA, with associated precip forecast to continue spreading obliquely eastward/southeastward down the Sierra and -- to a lesser extent --
over central/southern CA. Behind that, strong cooling aloft --
related to DCVA immediately preceding the mid/upper trough -- is
supporting favorable instability through a deep-enough layer for
thunderstorms, with areas of 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE apparent over the
Pacific marine layer between SFO and the OR border. That plume of
buoyancy will expand southeastward past the MRY area over the next
few hours, combining with favorable deep shear (40-50 kt
effective-shear magnitudes) to support slight onshore penetration of strong/isolated severe thunderstorms, before activity weakens in
lower inland theta-e. Convection should move over the outlook area
through midmorning local time, before the trough passes.

...East to southeast TX...
Large-scale ascent preceding the eastern mid/upper trough -- in the
form of DCVA over northern parts of the thunder outlook area and a
broad plume of low-level WAA/moisture transport -- will continue to
support scattered, predominantly elevated thunderstorm potential
from the Arklatex to the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys.
Farther south across east TX to near the upper TX Coast, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon.
This activity also will be tied mainly to the WAA plume, and related
isentropic ascent to LFC. Forecast soundings show potential for
inflow-layer parcels to become surface-based amid continuing warming
from both advective and diabatic processes. Wind profiles will veer
with height, though lower midlevel (roughly 600-700 mb) weaknesses
and lack of greater winds even higher in altitude will limit bulk
shear, with effective-shear magnitudes generally remaining below 40
kt. Counterbalancing effects precluding unconditional severe threat
include rising heights throughout the day, stable layers and other
areas of weak lapse rates in midlevels that will keep MLCAPE from
getting much greater than 1000 J/kg, and weakening of both frontal
and large-scale lift with time.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/14/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 151225
SWODY1
SPC AC 151224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS TO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail near severe limits is possible tonight from portions
of north Texas to the Ozarks.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude longwave pattern will remain in
place over the CONUS, with progressive shortwave to synoptic troughs
traversing the prevailing westerlies. The leading trough --
currently anchored by a closed low near the northern IL/IN border --
should devolve to an open wave and move to the northern Mid-Atlantic
region by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves and
vorticity lobes -- occupying broadly cyclonic flow over much of the
western CONUS -- will consolidate/phase somewhat through the period
while shifting eastward. By 00Z, a loosely organized synoptic
trough will extend from the Dakotas across the central High Plains
to AZ. Overnight, a closed 500-mb low should develop over southern
MB, with the trough extending across central NE/KS to southern NM
and northwestern MX by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a decaying cold to stationary
front from eastern IL across southern AR, north-central and west-
central TX. This boundary will move slowly northward through the
day and continue to weaken. Meanwhile, cold frontogenesis is
forecast today ahead of the mid/upper trough, and over parts of the central/northern Plains. This Plains front should reach western
parts of MN/IA, northeastern to south-central KS, and the TX
Panhandle by 00Z. By 12Z, the cold front should reach central/
southern IL, the Ozarks, eastern/southern OK, and the TX South
Plains region.

...North TX to the Lower OH Valley...
Episodic, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
throughout the period, embedded in a plume of low-level warm/moist
advection and moisture transport extending from central/east TX to
the lower Ohio Valley. Through the day, this activity will occur in
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest deep shear, with most or all of
it elevated over a relatively stable, near-surface layer, and
accordingly minimal severe potential. Meanwhile, surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will spread northward into and across much of the
outlook area, as the older boundary becomes diffuse ahead of the
Plains cold front.

Concurrent with height falls aloft and increasing deep shear, the
warm conveyor and accompanying isentropic ascent to LFC should
intensify this evening amid mass response to the consolidation/
approach of the mid/upper trough, and related 45-55-kt LLJ.
Greatest thunderstorm coverage in the plume is expected after about
03Z from near the Red River Valley to the Ozarks, spreading into the
lower Ohio Valley from around 09Z onward. During phases when
convection is still relatively discrete, and around the southern
part of denser/later convective coverage, the most vigorous cells
may produce severe hail. Forecast soundings show a nearly
saturated, near-neutral stability profile in the boundary layer over
north TX to eastern OK, and perhaps into some of northwestern AR,
depending on outflow timing/intensity. This renders profiles that
may be effectively surface-based, with MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg
rage and slightly greater MUCAPE, but still often containing weak,
near-surface static stability. At this time, severe-gust/tornado
potential appears too conditional and low to draw even marginal
categorical probabilities for those hazards, and the previous
outlook area still appears to capture the consensus of most
probable, favorably positioned convection in the plume as well.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/15/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161226
SWODY1
SPC AC 161224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist, with the most
important feature being a trough now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery from a low over southeastern MB, across western MN, eastern
NE, central KS, and the TX Panhandle. The main/northern part of
this trough is forecast to weaken and move across the Upper Great
Lakes today. A weaker, positively tilted, basal vorticity banner
will move eastward from the TX Panhandle across much of OK today,
and more slowly moving eastward over northwest TX. By 00Z, this
lobe should weaken and extend from the Ozarks to southern OK and the
Permian Basin, then become diffuse and perhaps dissipate overnight.

As that occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from eastern
IA across southwestern MO, central/southwestern OK and northwest TX
-- should move eastward/southeastward by 00Z to near a TOL-EVV-DYR-
LIT-DAL-6R6 line. Overnight, the southern part of the front will
move slowly southeastward then become quasistationary, reaching a
position across northern parts of AL/MS/LA, northeast/north-central
TX and the Hill Country. Episodic, widely scattered thunderstorms
in bands and clusters are possible near the front, becoming isolated
to widely scattered in the warm sector.

A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from the
Arklatex into the Mid-South, near time of peak diurnally driven
buoyancy. This activity will be within the warm-advection/moisture-
transport conveyor, and along/ahead of the surface cold front. A
narrow corridor of prefrontal MLCAPE should range from about 2000
J/kg in northeast TX, where heating and moisture will be greatest,
to around 1000 J/kg in eastern AR. However, during the surface warming/destabilization peak window, surface flow will be veering
and remaining weak, due to the shift of the mid/upper trough and
related large-scale lift and mass response away from the area. This
will act both to shrink hodographs and weaken frontal convergence
with time. Given these offsetting factors, and the increasing
dominance of the unfavorable ones with time during the afternoon,
severe probabilities appear too low and conditional for an outlook
area at this time.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/16/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171256
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early
morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS
from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of
these, however, will amplify through the period and influence
convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach
western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z.
By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line
from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS.

At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across
central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it
intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front
drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis
and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the
amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low
should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across
south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and
northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by
12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to
southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and
residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the
Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being
overtaken by the cold front.

...Red River region to Mid-South...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either
side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from
this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that
boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold
front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly
overnight.

As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively
undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook
area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest
DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the
approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a
tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and
large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread
across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes
will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface
dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will
contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow,
neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present
nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado.
Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant
quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal
hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent,
relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in
the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181253
SWODY1
SPC AC 181251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible into
early afternoon across parts of the Tennessee Valley region.

...Synopsis...
A continuing progressive pattern aloft will be dominated by two main
shortwave troughs: a trailing perturbation now over the coastal
Pacific Northwest, and a positively tilted one apparent in moisture-
channel imagery near a DBQ-STJ-P28-DHT axis. The latter will be the
main mid/upper-level convective influence this period, as it
elongates and tracks to near a PIT-LEX-ELD-GLS line by 00Z. The
southern part of the trough is progged to amplify and become less
positively tilted as it crosses the Mississippi Delta region
tonight, reaching northern GA, eastern AL and the western FL
Panhandle by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across parts of northern/western KY, western TN, southern AR, and northeast/central/
southwest TX. By 00Z, the front should extend from a low over
northern NJ southwestward, roughly along the Blue Ridge, then over
northern GA to the FL Panhandle. By the end of the period, the cold
front should be off all the Atlantic Coast except central FL,
extending southwestward to the southern Gulf.

...TN and vicinity...
Isolated, damaging to marginally severe gusts and/or a brief tornado
are possible into the afternoon, mainly over portions of TN. A
near-frontal band of thunderstorms was ongoing from the Arklatex
region across the Mid-South, to central KY. Ahead of this activity,
a northward-narrowing corridor of 60s F surface dewpoints (and
related near-surface-based effective-inflow parcels) was evident,
supporting 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE from near MEM to northwest of BNA,
where the 12Z sounding still showed a stable boundary layer. See
SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2272 for near-term info.

Weak, continuing, preconvective theta-e advection, and perhaps a few
deg F of cloud-restrained diurnal warming, will offset modest
midlevel lapse rates enough to maintain and perhaps slightly
increase surface-based buoyancy eastward across TN through early/mid
afternoon. Although flow ahead of the QLCS that has not already
done so should veer to south-southwest or southwest, enough
hodograph enlargement will remain to support around 100-150 J/kg
0-500m SRH and 200-300 J/kg effective SRH, amid 35-45-kt
effective-shear magnitudes. As such, the main concern will arise
from episodic, embedded BOW/LEWP formations and accompanying
mesocirculations. The convective band should outpace the already
marginally unstable boundary layer by midafternoon.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/18/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211252
SWODY1
SPC AC 211250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early
afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California.

...Coastal OR/northern CA...
A potent mid to upper-level shortwave trough will move ashore the
northern CA/OR coast and continue northeastward into the southern
Canadian Rockies/northern Rockies vicinity through late tonight.
Weak thunderstorm activity embedded within a warm-air advection rain
shield will continue moving into the coastal range mountains this
morning before outrunning the inland penetration of scant
instability. The corridor of thunderstorms will probably shift
north along the coast into OR by midday into the early afternoon in
association with the mid-level cold pocket encroaching on the OR
coast. Elsewhere, quiescent weather or stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm development over the remainder of the
contiguous United States.

..Smith/Goss.. 12/21/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 222000
SWODY1
SPC AC 221959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Lightning flashes continue to be observed just offshore of the
northern CA coastline as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. As the mid-level trough continues to advance toward the
coastline later this afternoon and evening, increased mid-level
cooling aloft will encourage at least isolated onshore thunderstorm development. As such, no changes have been made to the previous
forecast.

..Squitieri.. 12/22/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/

...Northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast through tonight...
Lightning flashes have been observed this morning within a
baroclinic band roughly 150 mi off the northern CA coast, in
association with a midlevel shortwave trough that will move inland
later today into tonight. The potential for isolated lightning
flashes inland will begin this afternoon with elevated convection in
the warm conveyor belt across northwest CA/southwest OR. Other
isolated lightning flashes may also occur this evening into early
tonight along the WA coast as steeper low-midlevel lapse rates and
weak buoyancy spread inland.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231244
SWODY1
SPC AC 231242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over AZ
moving east and a northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest.
The northern mid-level trough will latitudinally expand southward
into the central Rockies/south-central High Plains as a ridge
amplifies over the Interior West in its wake. As this occurs, a
partial phasing of mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest will
occur as it moves into the southern High Plains. Farther west, a
powerful upper trough will reach the WA/OR/northern CA coasts late
tonight. In the low levels, surface high pressure will influence
conditions over much of the Lower 48 states. Weak/ill-defined lower
pressure over central TX will facilitate southerly flow from the TX
coastal plain northward into the Red River Valley.

Weak 850-mb warm-air advection will likely persist through the
period across north TX into OK while a modest increase in moisture
eventually results in weak elevated instability. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight over
eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX.

..Smith/Goss.. 12/23/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271244
SWODY1
SPC AC 271243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today
across parts of the central Gulf Coast States.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cyclonic flow will persist
around mean troughing, from the Great Basin and Rockies across the
Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The leading shortwave
trough -- in a series of them to influence convective potential
through early next week -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery
over the MO Bootheel southward over portions of the Mid-South
region. This feature will weaken considerably as it ejects
northeastward to OH by 00Z, in response to an upstream trough
initially over the southern/central Plains to Black Hills and
western Dakotas. That higher-amplitude perturbation will reach the
eastern Dakotas, lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by 00Z, then eject northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by the end of the period. A
third shortwave trough -- currently moving inland from the Pacific
Northwest Coast -- should dig southeastward rapidly across the Great
Basin, reaching the southern High Plains and Permian Basin regions
by 12Z tomorrow.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over the western Ozarks
between SGF-HRO, with occluded front arching across the Mid-South to west-central MS, warm front over south-central MS to near MOB then southeastward across the FL Keys. A slow-moving cold to
quasistationary front was drawn from west-central MS across the
southwestern LA coastline and TX shelf waters to a weak low over
Padre Island. The low should move north-northeastward to northern
WI by 12Z tomorrow, with frontolysis occurring to its south near the Mississippi Valley. Cyclogenesis will occur overnight over
northwest TX in advance of the third mid/upper-level shortwave trough.

...Portions of central Gulf Coast region...
Multiple rounds of convection are expected through this evening,
with the best-organized cells offering locally strong-severe gusts
and a marginal tornado risk. This includes a couple bands of
ongoing convection -- along a dominant western convergence zone just
ahead of the cold front, from eastern to southwestern MS and coastal south-central LA, and another near I-59 in southern MS. The 12Z LIX
sounding sampled the coastal airmass between these well, with MLCAPE
around 1400 J kg, effective SRH around 270 J/kg, modest winds
between 250-500 mb, and effective-shear magnitude near 30 kt. With
the leading trough ejecting away from the area and weakening fast,
and the next remaining stronger but passing abeam of the outlook
area to the north, net height changes through most of the period
should be near neutral, with some rises possible in the near term
(indicating the ongoing activity is unlikely to get substantially
better organized than at present).

However, a progressive lobe of midlevel vorticity -- extending
southeastward from the second trough -- will foster large-scale
DCVA/lift late this afternoon into evening over portions of MS and northern/western AL before the lobe ejects away and dissipates.
This will be well-timed with peak afternoon warming, to steepen low-middle-level lapse rates and weaken MLCINH, contributing to
potential regeneration/strengthening of the western convective/
convergence band. That process, with 60s F warm-sector surface
dewpoints between the cold and warm fronts, should contribute to
1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep shear and low-level hodographs should
favor at least isolated supercells, with 35-45-kt effective-shear
magnitudes and 200-300 J/kg effective SRH (maximized near the warm
front). However, by mid/late afternoon, deep ascent and shear will
have peaked over most of the area. With increasing displacement
between the stronger flow/forcing aloft related to the second
trough, and the favorable boundary-layer airmass, already marginal
severe potential should diminish overnight.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/27/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281252
SWODY1
SPC AC 281251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe
gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will
shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across
east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the
Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will persist and shift
eastward across the central CONUS through the period. The most
important feature aloft will be an embedded shortwave trough, now
apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the southern High Plains,
lowest Pecos Valley and northern Coahuila. This perturbation will
move eastward across much of the remainder of TX today, reaching a
position from eastern OK to east TX to the northwestern Gulf by 00Z.
Overnight, this trough should pivot northeastward, reaching
southern IL, western parts of KY/TN, and MS by 12Z tomorrow.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a wavy, mostly warm to locally
quasistationary frontal zone across the southeastern Hill Country of
TX, eastward over central/east TX and central LA to western/central
MS, then southeastward diffusely into outflow air over coastal areas
near MOB/PNS, related to offshore activity. A low was drawn over
northwest TX between SPS-ABI. The low is expected to migrate east-southeastward across north TX this morning, meet the returning
warm sector, then pivot east-northeastward to the northern LA/
southern AR area by 00Z, when the attached cold front should extend southwestward over portions of east and south TX. By 12Z, the low
should deepen considerably and reach western KY, with cold front
across middle TN, northern AL, southeastern MS, southeastern LA, and
the northwestern Gulf. Well-organized convective band(s) should
precede the cold front from this afternoon through tonight. Prior
to the low's arrival, the warm/marine front should advance northward
into the Arklatex, and across parts of southern AR and northern MS.
The warm front should move northeastward across AL and the FL
Panhandle tonight, bounding the northeastern rim of a narrowing warm
sector.

...Southern Plains to Southern Appalachians and central Gulf
Coast...

Convection is increasing in two main regimes either side of the
warm/marine front:

1. Elevated convection to its north over north-central TX,
predominantly of a hail concern, and forecast to move/expand into
the Arklatex over the next few hours. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch
717 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details.
2. Warm-sector thunderstorms building gradually from east TX across
parts of LA to southern MS. This activity will pose a threat for
tornadoes, isolated hail, and occasional severe gusts. See SPC
Mesoscale discussions 2294 and 2295, with watches likely over these
areas today as well.

Peak tornado and severe-gust potential should be from this afternoon
into tonight, in and near the "Moderate" and "Enhanced" areas.
Perhaps the greatest uncertainty at this time is coverage of
supercells in the warm sector during peak instability this afternoon
and into evening, following the morning episode, given 1) the need
for recovery behind earlier activity and 2) subtle and gradual
boundary-layer forcing/convergence would be the main factor
contributing to their development. A broad area of favorable
moisture, represented by mid-60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints,
will contribute to peak MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range from east
TX to southwestern MS, and around 1000-1500 J/kg from central MS
into central/southern AL where diurnal heating will be less a factor
than theta-e advection for preconvective destabilization.
Hodographs will favor supercells and tornado potential during the
day -- especially near the marine/warm front -- but largest after
00Z east of the Mississippi River where a 45-60-kt LLJ will overlap
at least marginally surface-based inflow parcels. SRH of 150-250
J/kg in the lowest 1/2 km, and 200-400 J/kg in the effective-inflow
layer, should be attainable.

Any sustained, discrete supercell in this environment will pose a
threat for cyclic, strong tornado production. As the primary
convective band organizes and moves into increasing moisture and
LLJ-enlarged hodographs in low levels this evening, embedded
LEWP/bowing features may produce both severe gusts and tornadoes.
The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty
remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area. As the event
proceeds through the overnight hours, one or two dominant QLCSs
should continue across AL and into portions of GA and the FL
Panhandle, with a threat persisting for embedded severe gusts and at
least a few tornadoes.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/28/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281949
SWODY1
SPC AC 281947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe
gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will
continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower
Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of
Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into
East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These
areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further
destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the
outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The
corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central
Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms
should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the
mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens.

..Wendt.. 12/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/

...East TX to AL/GA...
A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet
max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become
negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this
evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to
lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of
LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening
across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This
will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant
severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing
structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS.

The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the
low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the
evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon
through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an
upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT
after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked
tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region,
with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms.

Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less
low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential
and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291301
SWODY1
SPC AC 291300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts are possible
today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas and
southern Virginia. More-isolated severe storms may occur across
parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and over
southernmost Florida.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will persist across the
CONUS. A strong shortwave trough will move ashore in the Pacific
Northwest and northern CA today. This will be preceded by some
thunder potential, as lapse rates steepen from large-scale ascent,
over areas where at least marginal low/middle-level moisture exists
to support convection. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was
evident in moisture-channel imagery between the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley. This perturbation will pivot northeastward over
TN, KY and IN today, forming a closed 500-mb low by 00Z over the
Michiana region, and phasing with an initially upstream perturbation
now over the central Plains. By 12Z, the resultant trough should
assume considerable negative tilt, extending from a low over eastern
Lake Huron to the Hampton Roads of VA/northeastern NC region.

The associated surface cyclone was centered at 11Z over southwestern
IN, with cold front across middle TN, central AL, past the
Mississippi River mouth, then across the northwestern Gulf. The low
is forecast to deepen and occlude today as it moves to near TOL.
The cold front should sweep across much of the eastern CONUS through
the period. By 00Z, the front should reach central parts of PA/VA/
NC/SC, southeastern GA, and the eastern Gulf, preceded by a
strong-severe line of thunderstorms. By 12Z, the front should reach
eastern NY, then offshore until central FL.

...Southern Atlantic Coast States...
An ongoing, prefrontal squall line, with sporadic/embedded LEWP/
bowing features and an occasional embedded mesovortex, extends from northwestern SC across central/southern GA and the FL Panhandle, to
the adjoining Gulf. This convection should become more northeast/
southwest oriented as its northern portion races through the central Appalachians/Piedmont region today, amid meager but still locally
sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE mostly less than 400 J/kg), long and
curved low-level hodographs with 200-400 J/kg effective SRH, and
favorable deep shear. Damaging gusts and a few embedded QLCS
tornadoes will be the main concerns. See SPC Tornado Watches 723-724
and associated mesoscale discussions for the latest near-term coverage.

...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley...
Widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are possible from midday
through afternoon in a pocket of marginally unstable air ahead of
the surface low and ejecting mid/upper trough. A marginal threat
exists for damaging gusts or a brief tornado from this activity. As
the trough approaches, midlevel flow will strengthen considerably,
associated large-scale ascent will steepen low/middle-level lapse
rates, while the mass response increases low-level and deep-layer
shear. Temperatures from the upper 50s F to mid 60s (southeastern
parts) would support MLCAPE in the 100-400 J/kg range amidst 40-50
kt effective-shear magnitudes and SRH of 100-200 J/kg in the lowest
1/2 km. Damaging gusts may be brought to the surface via momentum
transfer in downdrafts from the LLJ, and conditional potential
exists for mini-supercells to develop. Given the weak overall lapse
rates and lack of greater buoyancy, the already marginal threat
should diminish quickly by around 00Z.

...South FL/Keys...
A small but persistent MCS, with an embedded MCV on its northwest
side, has been moving slowly eastward across the easternmost Gulf
toward Florida Bay for most of the prior overnight hours. This
complex should affect at least parts of the mid/upper Keys, and
southern Everglades, through midday. The ambient/synoptic gradients
suggest only modest deep-layer shear this far from the ejecting
shortwave trough. However, mesoscale midlevel flow enhancement and
low-level mass response will promote some hodograph enlargement in a
small corridor southeast through east of the MCV. Accordingly,
sporadic and mostly short-lived mesocirculations have been observed
in the complex for several hours, amid rich inflow-layer moisture
and low LCL. An associated low-end tornado threat may extend into
the outlook area before the complex weakens substantially. See SPC
Mesoscale Discussion 2317 for near-term details.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/29/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 301216
SWODY1
SPC AC 301214

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS in
mid/upper levels, except for progressive shortwave ridging in
between these two perturbations:

1. A strong, negatively tilted shortwave trough apparent in
moisture-channel imagery from a 500-mb low over Lake Huron,
southeastward WV to coastal SC. This feature is expected to lose
amplitude while pivoting northeastward up the East Coast and
central/northern Appalachians, and across the Lower Great Lakes,
through the end of the period. The associated surface cold front is
offshore from the mid-Atlantic, and extends southwestward across
central FL to the central Gulf, where frontal deceleration and
weakening are expected through most of the period.

2. An initially weaker shortwave trough, evident from the Black
Hills southward over eastern CO. This feature should strengthen
today and tonight as several proximal vorticity lobes phase with
each other, and ageostrophic/baroclinic forcings intensify. The
trough should move east-southeastward across the central Plains and
lower Missouri Valley, reaching the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South
region by 12Z tomorrow. In the wake of prior cold-frontal passage, low/middle-level moisture will be weak, yet still sufficient to
support isolated, nocturnal, non-severe thunderstorms amidst a
corridor of strong large-scale ascent/destabilization aloft, from
the mid-Mississippi Valley to lower Ohio Valley region.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/30/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311258
SWODY1
SPC AC 311257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts, isolated large hail,
and possibly a brief tornado, are possible today from the central
Appalachians to parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive shortwave pattern will persist
within a broadly cyclonic flow field covering much of the CONUS from
the Rockies eastward. The most important of these features for
convective potential will be a well-developed shortwave trough --
evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over IL south-
southeastward to western portions of KY and the lower Tennessee
Valley region. Though the 500-mb low may not remain closed, the
trough will remain strong and shift east-northeastward up the Ohio
Valley today, reaching OH, WV and the western Appalachians of VA/NC
by 00Z. The trough should pivot over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
offshore from the Delmarva Peninsula by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low between CMI-MTO, related
to the shortwave trough aloft, a cold front arching southwestward
across western parts of TN/KY, and a warm front east-southeastward
across northeastern KY that will shift northeastward over portions
of WV and southern OH through the early afternoon, as the low
occludes and moves northeastward. By 00Z, the low should reach the
CLE area, with cold front moving eastward across western parts of VA
and NC, and warm front moving north up the Atlantic Coast and across
the Delmarva Peninsula. An older frontal zone, now well offshore,
should continue to weaken, with considerable theta-e advection
occurring to its west near the coast.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic...
Episodic lines and clusters of thunderstorms are expected to move
eastward across the outlook area today, from the northern
Cumberland/southern Allegheny Plateau region eastward toward coastal
Delmarva and vicinity, with occasional strong/isolated severe gusts
and hail the main severe modes, but with marginal tornado threat as well.

Large-scale ascent will spread over this region in the form of
strong midlevel DCVA/cooling immediately preceding the trough, as
well as the peripheral/ageostrophic influences of the left exit
region of a strong 250-300-mb jet, centered from the Ozarks to the
western Carolinas. Associated destabilization aloft will offset
modest (but diurnally steepening) low-level lapse rates and marginal
moisture behind the offshore front. This yields an area of 100-300
J/kg MLCAPE already apparent in objective analyses between RAOBs,
over southern IN, despite cool surface conditions. This weakly
buoyant regime is forecast to expand and strengthen somewhat
(300-600 J/kg) as it moves eastward over eastern KY late this
morning into midday. Long, somewhat curved low-level hodographs and
strong low-level shear are expected, supporting potential for embedded/low-topped supercells, as well as LEWP/bow features with
any linear modes.

The area of large-scale lift and accompanying strong-severe
convective potential then will shift across WV to VA/MD/DC and the
Delmarva region, encountering theta-e advection from a modified
post-frontal airmass over the Atlantic. This regime then should
move offshore, where even more-extensive convective development is
likely overnight. The wind and tornado areas have been shifted
south out of most of PA, where the low-level stable/inversion layer
should hold, and expanded westward into portions of eastern KY,
where surface-based buoyancy will exist as the cold-core region
moves overhead. Severe potential probably will be discontinuous
across this corridor, and a lack of more-robust buoyancy precludes
more than a marginal unconditional severe threat for this outlook
cycle.
------------------

...Epilogue (RE)...
This is my final SPC outlook, forecast and shift. With a
cyclonically swirling storm of memories, I retire mourning the end
of a rewarding era, yet ever grateful, blessed with a career of
public service devoted to excellence. For a poor kid from
inner-city east Dallas, carrying a passion for tornadoes from
earliest awareness, and a relentless drive to research and forecast
them, it has been everything the dream promised, and more. I hope
the American taxpayers have found my time worth their money.

Even through this autumnal transition of life's seasons, I'll stay
as inspired as ever by the tempestuous sky above -- to observe,
photograph and study it, and keep giving back to the science in some
way, as long as physically and mentally able. It just won't be on
rotating shifts. The forecasting baton passes to another generation
of sharp minds, just as the lead crew in the 1990s did for us "young
pups of SELS" in Kansas City. The SPC is in great hands.

There isn't enough room here to thank everyone from early childhood
through OU, NSSL, NHC, NSSFC/SELS, and SPC -- family, friends,
instructors, mentors, students, and colleagues -- but be assured I
do. Nothing has granted greater career fulfillment than to deliver severe-weather forecasts with detailed, science-based insights,
customized for each situation, shift after shift for over three
decades, and to write related research papers. Thanks for reading
and using them, any or all. Stay weather-aware!

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/31/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 011231
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS, a
mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northeastward over New
England and the Canadian Maritimes today. A related coastal surface
low near southern New England is expected to develop northward into
ME by this evening. Even though instability will remain very weak,
isolated lightning flashes will remain possible for at least a few
more hours across parts of coastal New England in the low-level warm
advection regime of the cyclone. Dry and/or stable conditions and
minimal thunderstorm potential are forecast today for the rest of
the CONUS.

..Gleason/Grams.. 01/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031257
SWODY1
SPC AC 031255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over
parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest.
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb)
associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse
rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even
though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover.
Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with
generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along
parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds
may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast
instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a
meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041253
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts
of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will
translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass
response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over
the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing
into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front
will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight.
With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast
today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture
across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should
fairly be limited.

The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the
Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE
(generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with
elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday
morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most
probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South.
Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat
for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also
approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period
early Sunday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 061249
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe,
will be possible across parts of the Southeast today.

...Southeast...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a
cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of
Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern
CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep
east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the
period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this
front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should
be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse
rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should
allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of
the front.

Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence
along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should
limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so,
there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the
broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of
southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient
low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The
overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal
given the limited instability forecast over land.

...Outer Banks...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or
just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest
that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf
Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two
may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly
eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited
spatially for low severe probabilities.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 081234
SWODY1
SPC AC 081233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated
thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas.

...West Texas...
A low-latitude mid/upper-level low will settle south-southeastward
over far northwest Mexico through tonight. Weak height falls will
begin to influence far west Texas late tonight, with modestly
increasing ascent atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. With cold
temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates, weak
elevated instability based around 700 mb may be sufficient for
isolated lightning flashes late tonight, primarily after midnight.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/08/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 091259
SWODY1
SPC AC 091258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Discussion...
A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and
northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern
High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a
cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated
moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of
central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional
thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough
for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 100532
SWODY1
SPC AC 100531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A
few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with
the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper
trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will
move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls
over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft
will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will
spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper
ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a
strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives
southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with
relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf
Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast
early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then
reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday.

...Northern Gulf Coastal Region...
Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in
warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS
eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the
Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and
presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal
destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models
indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated
MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit
destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be
possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast,
and northward in the warm advection regime.

Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear,
gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur.
However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough
to introduce any risk areas.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 121256
SWODY1
SPC AC 121255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms
may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight.

...Middle Gulf Coast...
Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist
over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from
the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over
the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing
warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level
theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late
tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted
destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to
focus offshore.

..Guyer.. 01/12/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 131252
SWODY1
SPC AC 131251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few
thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today.

...Discussion...
Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak
low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence
eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will
remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts
of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland
is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not
expected.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 141250
SWODY1
SPC AC 141248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as
high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the
Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will
progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today.
Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification
over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the
coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late
tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused
decisively offshore.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 151248
SWODY1
SPC AC 151246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Coastal Texas...
Scattered elevated convection is expected to continue across the
coastal plain as warm/moist advection persists while a weak
mid-level disturbance moves eastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Deeper lightning-producing convection will focus over the
open Gulf waters, but a few lightning flashes could occur near the
coast. This potential is substantiated by the 12z observed sounding
from Corpus Christi, which features 400 J/kg MUCAPE (based around
840mb) and a thermodynamic profile conducive for charge separation.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/15/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern
Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental
trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the
coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift
toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak
convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast
Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be
overly conducive for lightning.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 171225
SWODY1
SPC AC 171223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the
Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.

...Eastern OK into AR...
Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending
across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max
will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for
large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR
by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable
surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below
250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few
thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and
elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are
not expected.

...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast...
As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing
low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB
500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly
after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the
50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting
any severe threat.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast
vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

...FL/Southern GA...
Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring
overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this
fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually
transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s
dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This
zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few
robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles
are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast
soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively
veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft
strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated
strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon
and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 191212
SWODY1
SPC AC 191211

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this
morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a
tornado and locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL...
Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath
the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward
across the central peninsula, with an associated line of
thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of
the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance
suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear
this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures
- capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This
threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly
weaken and veer.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

A large surface high dominates the weather across the CONUS today,
with cold, dry, and stable conditions preventing thunderstorms. A strengthening surface low off the Gulf coast may provide isolated
thunderstorms offshore later today and tonight, but lightning
activity is expected to remain well south of the coast.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 251244
SWODY1
SPC AC 251243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough
extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal
flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level
low will evolve over central CA during the period with an
accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to
-28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few
lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening.
Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of
moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to
weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection
will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely
scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor
disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow
suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby
negating a severe hail risk.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 261247
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over
CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central
U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and
northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with
large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level
temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield
intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into
southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few
sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther
east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm
conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf
Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm
development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong
mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is
forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or
two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of
steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX
raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere
via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 271231
SWODY1
SPC AC 271230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into
northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will
extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a
split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes.
In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the
northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf
Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther
west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere,
quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 281630
SWODY1
SPC AC 281628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Discussion...
Split upper-level flow will persist over the CONUS with a
slow-moving southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts and
northwest Mexico. In the presence of steep lapse rates, a few
lightning flashes will be possible across southern California and
northern Arizona through around sunset. No thunderstorms are
expected elsewhere as cool/stable conditions prevail.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/28/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 291249
SWODY1
SPC AC 291248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts
of the southern Great Plains tonight.

..Southern Great Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the
Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward
through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos.
Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to
limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over
south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass
over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill
Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon
over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit
storm intensity.

By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the
early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE)
from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The
arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the
approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the
development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern
OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will
support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger
updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase
during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become
oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong
to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A
surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on
the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight.
A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop
with this activity.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 301243
SWODY1
SPC AC 301242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight
from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...East-central TX into the lower MS Valley...
A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border
region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the
lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow
will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX
by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH
Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift
northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and
lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from
northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis
this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern
TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will
advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this afternoon/evening.

Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in
combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates
(reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs).
However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints
ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX
northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the
northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today
into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm
development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible
storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the
afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would
support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells.
Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear
to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential
severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker
instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this
evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with time.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/30/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 311253
SWODY1
SPC AC 311251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower
MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve
into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the
larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In
the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through
western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley.
This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level
flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the
FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the
12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates
and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit
storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can
develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across
southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite
uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in
convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending
lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given
the aforementioned uncertainty.

Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central
GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense
flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a
neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in
a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities.

..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive
flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a
cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via
surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New
England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm
development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception
associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning
flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity.

..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 031232
SWODY1
SPC AC 031230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum
flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the
Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a
mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues
to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast.
In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the
central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the
period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific
northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies.
Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 041240
SWODY1
SPC AC 041239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow
aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West
Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through
this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued
northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today.
Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the
first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures
will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a
few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler
temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third
shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early
tomorrow morning along the OR Coast.

Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts
eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving,
low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern
Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold
front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley,
Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front
over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday
morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates
will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm
potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this
afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern
Ohio and far southwest West Virginia.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering
the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough
farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is
forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late
tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass
response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of
moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and
the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South
and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely
develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before
then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and
ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity.

...Tennessee/Kentucky...
As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is
expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most
guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central
KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are
possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the
warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread
cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit
thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period.
However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the
shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing
warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in
increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent
updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km
bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization
with any more persistent updrafts.

Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected
to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief
tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a
few surface based storms could occur.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025

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