761
AXNT20 KNHC 301107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...
Winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning
offshore of Colombia through early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens between high pressure in the western Atlantic,
deepening low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Colombian
low. Seas will peak at 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...
Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds in the following
zones: FARADAY, ALTAIR, ROMEO and north of ACORES, and CHARCOT.
Please refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int , for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 03N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N15W to 01S38W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 01S to 05N between 13W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered near 28N84W, and low pressure over
south Texas is strengthening. This pattern is supporting moderate
to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with locally strong winds
occurring offshore of Texas and northern Mexico, west of 95W. Seas
range from 1-3 ft across the northeastern Gulf, with seas of 2-5
ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE winds and locally
rough seas will occur across the central and western Gulf through
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
over the eastern Gulf and strengthening low pressure in the south-
central United States. A cold front associated with the
aforementioned low will move into the northwestern Gulf tonight,
leading to fresh N to NE winds in its wake Fri morning into early
Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and locally very rough seas
will be possible in the southwestern basin offshore of Veracruz
Fri afternoon through Sat morning. Looking ahead, building high
pressure this weekend will lead to gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas across the basin into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted across the basin, with
strong E winds occurring in the south-central Caribbean.
Localized gale force winds prevail offshore of Colombia as the
pressure gradient tightens between ridging in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the monsoon trough. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are likely
near strong winds. Elsewhere, a long-period E swell is promoting
locally rough seas just east of the Windward Islands and through
the passages into the eastern Caribbean Seas. Slight seas are
noted across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and
early morning offshore of Colombia through early next week.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas
will occur across the Caribbean through this weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens between high pressure in the western
Atlantic, deepening low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and the
Colombian low. Winds will pulse to strong speeds across the
central basin as well as through the Windward Passage, downwind of
Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through this weekend. A long-
period E swell will combine with a new N swell this weekend to
produce locally rough seas in the tropical Atlantic waters east of
the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough has been analyzed from 31N55W southwestward to
15N62W in the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong
S to SW winds are occurring east of the trough axis, mainly north
of 28N. A cold front north of the area extends over much of the
northwestern Atlantic, and fresh to locally strong W to NW winds
are occurring to the south of the front, generally north of 29.5N
between 60W and 80W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas prevail through much of the open waters of the
Tropical Atlantic south of 25N. Strong to near-gale force winds
are found offshore of Morocco and downwind of the Canary Islands,
where seas of 8 to 12 ft are found.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong W to NW winds,
associated with a cold front N of the area, will occur this
morning north of 29.5N and west of 60W as the front moves
eastward. Building seas will occur behind the front through Sat.
Farther east, fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur north of
28N and east of 60W this morning as a trough prevails in the
region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough
seas in E swell will occur south of 25N through early next week.
Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected to develop by
early Fri north of 20N and west of 60W on the periphery of high
pressure building offshore of the Carolinas, with winds continuing
through Sat morning as the high moves eastward. Another front is
expected to progress offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States on Fri, producing fresh to strong winds and rough
seas in its wake. Looking ahead to Mon, high pressure along 30N
will support gentle breezes north of 25N, and moderate to fresh E
winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 25N, except
for locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage.

$$
ADAMS
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