ACUS02 KWNS 301716
SWODY2
SPC AC 301714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of
the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is
reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying
the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the
relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates
and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled
out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake
Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too
limited for General Thunderstorm highlights.

Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a
weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this
activity should remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140640
SWODY2
SPC AC 140638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on
Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day,
as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward
across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this
trough expected through the forecast period.

Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to
generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential
may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the
low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic
lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern
CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough.
Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any
general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150650
SWODY2
SPC AC 150648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central
Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will
be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a
corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the
upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a
severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday
and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160657
SWODY2
SPC AC 160655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern
Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the
50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F
across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of
convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of
the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and
west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong
large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered
strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the
southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady
ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the
southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF
forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that
the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into
the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong
to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central
and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The
primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete
supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line.
Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the
leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat
may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused
large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain
strong convective development with the MCS.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170655
SWODY2
SPC AC 170654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the
southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is
expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this
organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday
morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element
within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the
mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated
low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat
may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the
late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to
very weak instability.

...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast
Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the
evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening.
Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of
storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north,
suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS
should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180634
SWODY2
SPC AC 180633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the
region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the
Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected from near the front eastward across the much
of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong
low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe
storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in
the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of
low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles.. 11/18/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190551
SWODY2
SPC AC 190550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along
the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over
northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast
across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively
tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max
will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max
will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern
Appalachians.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the
Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of
Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop
near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the
Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day.

...Carolinas...
Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the
eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the
cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough
swings east, with very weak instability developing.

Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence
inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of
appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong
storms are not expected.

...Florida...
Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold
front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula,
it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such,
despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the
western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective.

...Ohio and Vicinity...
A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the
upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday.
Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the
cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt
ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely,
a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures
aloft.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature
gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly
weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over
the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving
ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time.

..Jewell.. 11/19/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday
morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the
period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the
Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the
Pacific Northwest region late.

Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable
conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability
forecast over much of the CONUS.

The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR,
as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will
be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may
move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does
not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a
severe threat.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220541
SWODY2
SPC AC 220539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will move out of the northeastern
states, with a weak upper ridge moving across the Plains and toward
the MS Valley. To the west, a large upper trough will continue
eastward across the Great Basin and much of the central and northern
Rockies. A lead wave will likely pivot northeastward toward the
Dakotas late.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, maintaining stable conditions.
Low pressure will exist ahead of a cold front from the eastern Great
Basin into the northern High Plains by late in the day.

A low chance of a few lightning flashes may exist along the coastal
Pacific Northwest where cold temperatures aloft may result in weak
buoyancy. Otherwise, minimal activity will be possible over parts of
central ID and vicinity as lapse rates steepen.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230548
SWODY2
SPC AC 230546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper trough will depart the northeastern states as an
elongated mid/upper level speed max extends across the Four Corners
states and into the Plains. This feature will phase with an upper
low/trough extending from southern SK/MB into the northern Plains,
with ridging over the East.

A low pressure trough will exist ahead of the cold front from the
upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains around 00Z, extending
from Lower MI into northern TX by 12Z Monday.

Ahead of this front, southerly winds will result in a batch of low
60s F dewpoints from eastern TX toward AR, but the air mass should
remain capped with little of any convection along the intersecting
cold front.

Elsewhere, cool air aloft will remain over much of the northwestern
states, with little if any instability to support thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps
across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great
Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow
aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave
moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin.

In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located
over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z.
This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest
Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday.

Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F
dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and
western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature,
especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther
southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg.

Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift
along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250549
SWODY2
SPC AC 250547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm chances will be minimal across the CONUS on Tuesday, as
a negative-tilt shortwave trough moves into Quebec, and a cold front
progresses across the remainder of the Southeast.

Showers may linger along the front from the southern Appalachians to
the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning, and a lighting flash or two cannot
be ruled out over the southern AL to GA portion of the front.
However, any convection should be short lived.

Behind this initial system, the flow regime will become zonal into
Wed morning, though a new trough may start to amplify across the
Four Corners states. At that time, instability sufficient for
thunderstorms appears unlikely.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will
persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow
across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the
western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into
southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With
the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level moisture/instability will remain offshore Sunday and Sunday night.

A sporadic lightning strike will be possible in association with
lake-effect snow bands in the lee of Lakes Ontario and Erie, but
overall coverage should remain limited.

..Bunting.. 11/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050559
SWODY2
SPC AC 050558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a
hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the
eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended
farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow
relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds
veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement.
This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating
cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid
increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer
band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress
west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a
few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as
tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as
low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes
confined to the Gulf.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060651
SWODY2
SPC AC 060650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning in the late
afternoon Thursday across parts of west and central Texas. The most
likely corridor for large hail will be over a part of west Texas on
Thursday evening/night.

...West/central TX...
A mid/upper low will drift east across AZ/NM through much of the day
Thursday. By Thursday night, it should accelerate as an attendant
mid-level jet becomes confined to the southeast quadrant of the
cyclone. While a surface ridge will initially nose down the southern
High Plains from an anticyclone over the central High Plains, this
will eventually lose amplitude. Weak cyclogenesis should occur late
in the period along an inverted surface trough in parts of west TX.

A persistent increase in low-level moisture from the western Gulf
will return northwestward through the period. While some elevated
convection will be possible during the day, initially from central
to northwest TX, the bulk of convective development should occur in
the evening/night as the low-level jet broadly intensifies. This
will be coincident with a gradual increase in mid-level height falls overspreading west TX Thursday night.

A mesoscale corridor of relatively greater supercell potential
appears evident during the evening/night. This appears centered on
parts of the Lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin and the western
Edwards Plateau regions near the surface trough. While low-level
lapse rates should be weak, strong southwesterly speed shear in the
mid to upper levels will be favorable for a primary threat of large
hail with a mix of cells/small clusters. An abrupt cutoff to
surface-based severe convection is expected to the north/west of
this corridor, especially as weak cyclogenesis occurs. While
consistency has increased in guidance relative to 24 hours, where
exactly this demarcation is will likely be modulated by how
widespread elevated convection becomes during the evening to night.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070647
SWODY2
SPC AC 070645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas.

...TX...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly
track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding.
A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into
central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially
across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return
north of the Red River.

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could
accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau
vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be.
Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of
TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential
heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus
suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should
occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could
foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35
corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE
is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support
potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary
threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does
differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes
east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a
greater severe threat may be.

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during
the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat
will likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/07/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090554
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper
Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley
by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward,
will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and
remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level
warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms
from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be
possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse
rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude
severe storms.

Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly
low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday night.

..Grams.. 11/09/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night.

...Southeast...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the
Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a
limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become
increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal
flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting
entirely offshore around midday.

A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving
convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf
Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated
thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during
the afternoon.

...Western WA/OR and northern CA...
A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should
move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse
rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave
impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support
scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently
deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening.
Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume
of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland.

..Grams.. 11/10/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110644
SWODY2
SPC AC 110642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern
High/Rolling Plains on Tuesday evening.

...Southern High/Rolling Plains...
Zonal upper flow over the southern states will buckle as a
full-latitude trough progresses eastward across the West. This
trough should reach the Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Primary
embedded shortwave impulse is expected to eject from the Four
Corners into the central Great Plains. Low-level moisture quality
downstream will be lacking, owing in part to the preceding presence
of post-TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will
still emanate northward from northeast Mexico. Low to mid 50s
surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by 00Z, with upper
50s farther south in west TX. This should yield a narrow ribbon of
weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening
surface trough.

Confidence remains low in whether surface-based storms will become
sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry
mid-levels within the southwesterly flow regime. More probable
convective development is expected during the evening, as
large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and
strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection occurs. Favorable
speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support potential for a
few elevated supercells. Mid-level lapse rates appear modest, and
this may hold hail magnitudes to marginally severe. The severe
threat will probably be confined to the early/western portion of sustained-storm activity, but small hail may persist
east-northeastward in parts of OK/KS Tuesday night.

..Grams.. 11/11/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120658
SWODY2
SPC AC 120657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST...FOR COASTAL WA/OR/NORTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible
near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern
California.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from
the Great Plains toward the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys on Wednesday.
In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a weak surface low will
move from the east-central Plains toward the Great Lakes region, as
a trailing cold front moves through parts of the middle/lower MS
Valley. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will progress
farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave
moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast region...
Rich low-level moisture (with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints) is
forecast to gradually spread northward across the lower MS Valley
region from later in the D1/Tuesday period into D2/Wednesday. Weak
lapse rates will tend to limit instability, while stronger
mid/upper-level flow will generally remain north of the richer
moisture. However, deep-layer shear will likely become at least
marginally supportive of organized storms, while some enhancement to
low-level flow/shear is forecast as the shortwave trough to the
north glances the region. This evolution could support a few
marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon
and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a
tornado or two.

Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the
north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be
sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential
with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse
rates and generally marginal MUCAPE.

...WA/OR/northern CA coasts...
Cooling temperatures aloft will support weak destabilization in the
vicinity of the WA/OR/northern CA coasts through the day on
Wednesday. While convection will be rather low-topped, instability
may become sufficient (with SBCAPE potentially in the 200-500 J/kg
range) for occasional thunderstorms. The strongest low-level flow
will precede the primary destabilization, but persistent and rather
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow could support modestly
organized line segments and/or weakly rotating cells, with a threat
of isolated severe convective gusts and perhaps some small hail. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though the favored location
(if any) of any longer-lived rotating cells remains uncertain at
this time.

..Dean.. 11/12/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130701
SWODY2
SPC AC 130659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central and northeast
Gulf Coasts early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the
Carolinas Thursday evening and night. Organized severe potential
appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley is forecast to dig southeastward on Thursday and
evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to deepen
Thursday night along a frontal boundary near the Coastal Carolinas.
Farther west, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward and amplify as it approaches the Pacific Coast and
eventually moves inland.

...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts
of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, aided by the mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving across the Ohio Valley and attendant
low-level jet. Low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken through
the day, which will tend to result in less convective organization
with time. However, if organized convection from late on
D1/Wednesday can persist into Thursday morning, then rich low-level
moisture and sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear could support
a threat of isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Probabilities may eventually be needed if it appears that some
severe threat may continue from overnight Wednesday into the first
part of Thursday.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of appreciable
surface moistening/destabilization near the Coastal Carolinas, as
the surface low deepens and tracks east-northeastward into Friday
morning. However, there appears to be some potential for the
effective warm front to overlap parts of coastal NC and the Outer
Banks during the evening, as stronger deep-layer flow and ascent
overspread the region. Increasingly widespread precipitation will
tend to limit destabilization, but favorable wind profiles will
support organized convective potential where modest buoyancy can
develop. Probabilities may eventually be needed near the coast and
Outer Banks, if confidence increases regarding the potential for
isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado later in the forecast
period.

..Dean.. 11/13/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010503
SWODY2
SPC AC 010501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south
Texas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A dry, continental polar air mass will be in place across the CONUS
on Monday. The only exception is across far south Texas. Easterly
flow will strengthen across the Gulf on Sunday night and Monday as a
strong anticyclone moves into the central CONUS. This will cause mid
to upper 60s dewpoints to advect inland across far south Texas.
Meager instability may develop which could result in a few isolated thunderstorms. However, this is more likely offshore where somewhat
greater instability is likely.

..Bentley.. 12/01/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020702
SWODY2
SPC AC 020701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast and into
portions of East Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move off the east coast on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will progress east in its wake with a strong
anticyclone moving from the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians
through the weekend.

Easterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico on the southern periphery of
the anticyclone will result in some moisture making it inland across
far south Texas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the
immediate coastal areas during the morning and early afternoon
hours. As low-level flow becomes southerly and strengthens somewhat,
moisture advection around 1 km will result in increasing elevated
instability. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible in this
warm-air advection regime early Wednesday morning.

..Bentley.. 12/02/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030636
SWODY2
SPC AC 030634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss
on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A large, upper-level trough will move into southern Ontario and the
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday with a very strong mid-level jet
along the western periphery of this trough. As this occurs, a
compact low-level jet is forecast to develop across east Texas and
move into Louisiana and far western Mississippi during the evening
and overnight hours. As low-level southerly flow increases across
east Texas, low-level moisture will lead to modest elevated
instability (500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). Scattered thunderstorms are
possible across this region for much of the period. However,
instability appears too weak too warrant any substantial severe
weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/03/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040651
SWODY2
SPC AC 040649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the
central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico
during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the
Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal
instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The
front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the
overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/04/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a mid-level trough will slowly drift eastward along the Arizona/Mexico border. Stronger mid-level flow will round the base
of this trough Friday afternoon and emerge into the southern Plains
Friday night and early Saturday. Some moisture return will occur
above the surface front which will result in weak instability across
Texas and perhaps into southeast New Mexico. As stronger mid-level
flow emerges across the southern Plains, isolated to scattered
elevated thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico and
Far West Texas, to parts of central Texas. However, weak instability
should keep any severe weather threat limited.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060636
SWODY2
SPC AC 060634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas
on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing
northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the
period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading
eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the
southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting
in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day.

Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a
stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland
penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate
mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation.
Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy,
with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation
shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low.

..Mosier.. 12/06/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is very low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is
forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward
across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the
southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level
jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will
likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving
quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into
eastern KY.

Progression of this system will displace it north of the more
favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX
Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection
across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in
elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very
low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to
produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR.
However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe
potential low.

..Mosier.. 12/07/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080655
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification
on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to
extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial
evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough
moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves
from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario.

A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push
southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the
southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the
front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the
period over northern LA/west-central MS.

This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad
warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints
likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad
area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector
throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse
rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow
will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday
night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs,
with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential.
Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it
moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However,
minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability
potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall
severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any
probabilities.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored
by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern
High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the
parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the
mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt
500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians
early Wednesday morning.

A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to
move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some
guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along
the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to
move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s
by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest
secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves
through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning
low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor
lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be
strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper
updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the
developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into
southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late
afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment
could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the
northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into
middle/eastern TN.

...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning...
A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop
from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough
moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this
jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to
result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the
region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this
environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong
gust or two.

Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks
vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer
shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms
could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how
far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm
mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of
surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New
England on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada
southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf
early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base
of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward
from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the
parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying.
Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern
periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout
the day.

An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from
northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold
front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving
off the East Coast by Wednesday evening.

...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England...
Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the
Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching
cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into
southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy,
with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line
is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly
eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection
is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent
aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs
on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it
occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential
for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts.
Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust
kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air
capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the
forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New
England where buoyancy is expected to be very low.

Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within
the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent
precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some
guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms
develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over
coastal NC and the Outer Banks.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110624
SWODY2
SPC AC 110622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian
Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday.
Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is
expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the
Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface
ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the
eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated.

Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to
progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while
enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from
southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is
anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave
trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this
shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 120656
SWODY2
SPC AC 120655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and
ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An
associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward
just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast
NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant
cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and
western KS.

Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level
jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm
sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to
result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the
expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support
small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier.. 12/12/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/South-Central States...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from
the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only
a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface,
where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally
weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX
coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low
from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or
two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper
boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization
will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent
will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the
north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and
thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the
evening hours.

...Pacific Coast States...

Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an
upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning
moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame
when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread
portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period,
resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface
temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200
J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 150621
SWODY2
SPC AC 150619

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the
Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated
with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and
Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear
will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the
ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas
Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the
period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex
and central TX by Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be
maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX
toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern
MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH
Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS
Valley through the period.

Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused
north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture
across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may
produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO
Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer
flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based
instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent,
should limit overall severe potential on Monday.

..Leitman.. 12/15/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160633
SWODY2
SPC AC 160631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex/Ozarks Vicinity...

An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS
Valley vicinity on Tuesday. A 500 mb jet max around 50-70 kt will
become oriented from eastern OK into the Ohio Valley/lower Great
Lakes area after 06z, and stronger height falls are not expected to
overspread the region until the nighttime hours. At the surface, 50s
to low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected across south/east TX into
the Mid-South vicinity. A strong cold front will track southeast
across KS/OK during the evening, and by 06z be positioned from
northern AR into southeast OK and north-central TX. This boundary
will become a focus for increasing isentropic ascent and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the overnight/early Wednesday period.

Neutral height tendencies will likely suppress convection during the
day across much of the area. As convection develops along the
advancing cold front overnight, uncertainty remains regarding any
surface-based instability overlapping with stronger vertical shear
(which decreases rapidly with southward extent). Forecast soundings
vary across forecast guidance, but at least weak elevated
instability is expected driven by cooling aloft. Stronger elevated
cores could produce small hail, given forecast lapse rates around
6.8-7 C/km amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes (especially from
southeast OK into AR). Overall, severe potential appears quite
conditional for the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Will hold
off on including low-end hail probabilities, though a Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk may be needed in later outlooks depending on
forecast trends.

...FL Peninsula...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a moist airmass
and at least weak instability overspread the region. Onshore,
easterly low-level flow will provide convergence along an inverted
surface trough. Given sufficient destabilization, this will support
development of thunderstorms moving onshore through evening. Weak
0-6 km bulk shear (less than 20 kt) will preclude organized
convection, and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/16/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170632
SWODY2
SPC AC 170631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas early on Wednesday and across the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Florida Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast TX to the TN Valley...

Showers and elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the
surface cold front Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings show poor
low-level lapse rates and little surface-based instability. However,
up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE will be present, courtesy of cool midlevel
temperatures and modest midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer flow is
forecast to remain mostly unidirectional and parallel to the front,
suggesting convective undercutting by the boundary/outflows. While
some briefly organized structure may persist the first hour or two
of the forecast period, convection is expected to rapidly decrease
in intensity with southeast extent across the TN Valley/Gulf Coast
states. This is largely due to more modest boundary-layer moisture
and weakening vertical shear across MS/AL.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...

Isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough/surface
front will increase across the region through day. However,
large-scale ascent will remain weak until late, with the vorticity
maxima trailing well behind the surface front. Nevertheless, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the low-level
warm-advection regime, especially during the afternoon/early
evening. Forecast guidance varies in the depiction of the low-level thermodynamics and degree of destabilization. Though some support
for an organized storm or two is plausible, given around 750-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt. While a
strong storm could produce gusty winds or even small hail (given
somewhat elongated/straight hodographs and cool midlevel temps),
forecast confidence regarding severe potential remains fairly low.
Will refrain from introducing low-end/Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk probabilities at this time, though an outlook area may be required
in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180550
SWODY2
SPC AC 180549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Florida...

A shortwave upper trough within the area of broader eastern CONUS
troughing will be oriented from the Carolinas to the northeast Gulf
of Mexico Thursday morning. This system will shift east across FL
and offshore the Atlantic coast through 00z. At the surface, a cold
front located over north FL early in the day will develop southward
across the Peninsula. Low-level flow will be veered/northerly ahead
of the front, resulting in little low-level convergence.
Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will remain well north of
the Peninsula. While weak destabilization is forecast (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), mainly over the southern Peninsula, poor lapse rates and
warm midlevel temperatures will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential. Most CAMs and calibrated thunder guidance also indicate
little thunderstorm activity. Will maintain 10 percent general
thunder probabilities for the southeast FL coast, but even that may
be generous.

..Leitman.. 12/18/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a
shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms
mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during
the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could
occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast.

Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210648
SWODY2
SPC AC 210646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS on
Sunday. A continental polar airmass will remain across the eastern
CONUS which will preclude thunderstorm potential for most of the
country. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest and northern California coasts, particularly Sunday late
afternoon and evening as the next in a series of shortwave troughs
approaches the coast. Severe storms are not currently expected given
the limited buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220701
SWODY2
SPC AC 220659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify from the central Rockies
to the south-central High Plains on Monday. Weak surface wave
development is expected across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a
modest increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as weak
buoyancy develops with an upper trough approaching the coast and an inland-moving frontal band.

..Guyer.. 12/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 221718
SWODY2
SPC AC 221716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

A midlevel shortwave trough will amplify from the central Rockies to
the south-central High Plains on Monday. A weak surface low will
likely develop across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a modest
increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as
temperatures aloft cool with the approaching mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Central/East Texas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will amplify and spread
east-southeastward on Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward
the Ozarks. Low-level moisture will modestly increase across the
Texas coastal plain into south-central/east Texas during the day.
Lower 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common inland
ahead a southeast-moving cold front that will extend from
north-central Texas southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau Tuesday
afternoon.

In proximity to a surface wave and near/north of a warm front,
scattered convection should be ongoing Tuesday morning across far north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity/southeast Oklahoma.
Modest diurnal destabilization (up to 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should
occur ahead of the southeastward-moving effective cold front, mainly
across south-central to east/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45
corridors. As this occurs, a diurnally related intensification of
storms is expected near the southeast-advancing front, and possibly
also in the nearby free warm sector during the afternoon. A few of
these storms could be severe.

Effective shear will not be overly strong (30-35 kt), including some
flow weakness continuing to be noted in model soundings around 2-3
km AGL. Even so, some organized storm modes including weak/transient
supercells could occur with marginally severe hail and/or a few
locally severe wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and interior valley on Tuesday, early in
the day with the frontal band and with post-frontal cellular
convection during the day as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A
more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across
other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 261722
SWODY2
SPC AC 261720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across
parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave
troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday.
The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe
weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on
Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen
across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period.

...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL...
A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind
damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with
this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the
morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day.
A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast
with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the
early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region.
The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will
remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could
result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but
sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few
stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some
damaging wind gusts.

Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of
elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late
in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the
mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z
Saturday.

..Bentley.. 12/26/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280703
SWODY2
SPC AC 280702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots
northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated
surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions
of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front
will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching
the coast during the afternoon/evening.

...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States...
One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z
Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale
ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection.
These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the
form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew
points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as
far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover
will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak
instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between
500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula).

Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon
as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm
sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along
the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late
afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will
aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as
the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose
a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA
across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability
and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail
will also be possible with the most intense updrafts.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the
surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F
dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for
modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind
gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of
low-level flow beneath the upper trough.

..Bunting.. 12/28/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 281735
SWODY2
SPC AC 281734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast
from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early
in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast.
Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region
through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is
expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern
FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward
extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a
narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC.

Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into
north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE.
Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with
northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless,
fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic
strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger
instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from
SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and
marginally severe hail will exist.

...Ohio Valley...

A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will
overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts
northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F
dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant
surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated
with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization
(generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear.
Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible,
though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this
convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a
conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the
early to mid afternoon.

..Leitman.. 12/28/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290655
SWODY2
SPC AC 290653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A departing upper-level trough will lift northeast early Monday as a
surface cold front moves offshore over New England. An upstream
upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the central Plains, contributing to the development of a surface low near the KS/MO
border by afternoon. Low-level moisture will begin to return north
across the lower Mississippi Valley/Ark-La-Miss region, however
richer moisture will remain confined to near the TX/LA coast. This
will limit destabilization potential even as ascent/cooling
mid-level temperatures develop near the surface low. Thus, while an
isolated lightning strike will be possible in the presence of meager
MUCAPE (around 100-200 J/kg) across the mid-Mississippi Valley area
Monday night, overall coverage should be less than 10%.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, generally dry/stable conditions should
preclude thunderstorm potential.

..Bunting.. 12/29/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into
southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH Valley
northeastward into southern New England on Tuesday. An attendant
surface low will take a similar path throughout the day while
gradually occluding, reaching western NY by late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. An associated cold front is expected to push from
the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys eastward through the remainder of the OH
Valley, the TN Valley, and Southeast States. By Wednesday evening, a
surface low generated by secondary cyclogenesis at the triple point
will likely be over the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, with the
associated cold front extending from this low southwestward through
the central Carolinas, southern GA, and the western FL Peninsula.
Continued eastward progress will take this front off the East Coast
and through all but south FL by early Wednesday morning.

Limited low-level moisture and attendant buoyancy is anticipated
ahead of this shortwave and its associated cold front, precluding
thunderstorm development across much of the eastern CONUS. Some
deeper convective cores are possible along and ahead of the cold
front across the middle OH Valley Wednesday morning. A few lightning
flashes are possible, but current expectation is for overall
coverage to remain less than 10 percent. A greater risk for
thunderstorms is possible from the NC Outer Banks into southern New
England from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Here, strong
warm-air advection within the warm conveyor could result in a few
elevated storms deep enough to produce lightning.

..Mosier.. 12/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010717
SWODY2
SPC AC 010716

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern
CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the
central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States
and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to
drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning.
Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east
of the Rockies through Friday morning.

Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward
throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico
into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain
offshore throughout the period.

The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the
TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the
CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains,
helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of
Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south
TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting
inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over
the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent
thunderstorm development elsewhere.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020657
SWODY2
SPC AC 020655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through
the large-scale troughing expected to be in place across the eastern
CONUS, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday afternoon.
Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves,
coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern
Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Expansive surface ridging will cover
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the associated dry and
stable conditions dominating the sensible weather and precluding
thunderstorm development.

Father west, ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward,
ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected
to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and
Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest
WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin.

Frontal band associated with the progressive shortwave will likely
move onshore early Friday. Some deeper cells are possible within
this band, but these cells will still be too shallow for lightning
production. Another period of deeper convection is possible as the
upper trough and cold mid-level temperatures approach the coast
Friday afternoon. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible
offshore, with a low-probability flash or two possible over
immediate coastal portions of WA and OR as well.

..Mosier.. 01/02/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030650
SWODY2
SPC AC 030649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across
parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move from the Intermountain West Saturday
morning to the southern Plains early Sunday morning. Low-level
moisture advection will take place across the southern and central
Plains, ahead of the approaching trough. In response, weak
instability is expected to develop from southern and eastern Kansas
southward into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings early Sunday morning
from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma suggest MUCAPE could
approach 500 J/kg. The instability combined with strong large-scale
ascent should be enough for elevated thunderstorm development late
in the period. No severe threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040706
SWODY2
SPC AC 040705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening
from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes
and hail will be the primary threats.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on
Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the
Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold
front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection
taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning,
with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The
development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence
couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front.


A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday
afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from
southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi
increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50
to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the
mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon.
This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the
development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be
maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing
line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line,
suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating
elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead
of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At
this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with
the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced
across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.

..Broyles.. 01/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050654
SWODY2
SPC AC 050653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible
across parts of the Southeast on Monday.

...Southeast...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley
and central Gulf Coast states on Monday, as a cold front advances
eastward into the southern Atlantic Coastal states. Thunderstorms
may be ongoing along and near the front at the start of the period
from the Florida Panhandle into south-central Georgia. This line of
convection is forecast to move eastward across the remainder of
Georgia by early afternoon. The southern end of the line is forecast
to move across northern Florida during the morning and afternoon.
Although large-scale ascent and low-level convergence should be
relatively weak, the line may re-organize somewhat as surface
heating takes place. Forecast soundings by 21Z on Monday across
northern Florida have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear in the
60 to 65 knot range. This could be enough for marginally severe
gusts, with the stronger components of the line.

..Broyles.. 01/05/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 051720
SWODY2
SPC AC 051719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially
severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance
quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians
Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of
this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast
region.

An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and
cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early
evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the
Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the
Florida Peninsula overnight.

...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia...
Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms
-- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the
Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start
of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the
day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from
the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability
is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability
(aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and
weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe
convection. However, with a wind field in place that would
otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a
few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will
maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the
period.

..Goss.. 01/05/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070635
SWODY2
SPC AC 070634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts
of west and central Texas.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on
Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through
northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will
develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens
Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for
isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central
Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat
is expected.

..Broyles.. 01/07/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080654
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of
central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and
eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move
into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level
flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass
will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of
this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to
the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to
consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and
moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday
from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have
instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100
J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe
threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 01/08/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090657
SWODY2
SPC AC 090656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the
central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on
Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the
Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move
eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F
southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within
this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping
instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is
expected on Friday.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 111651
SWODY2
SPC AC 111649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana
coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms
will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this
period.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow,
initially encompassing much of western into central North America,
will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave
perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is
forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime
across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level
closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two
digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further
amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the
Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity.

Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level
ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low,
currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to
become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating
northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the
western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians
Sunday through Sunday night.

Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment
now established across much of the nation will generally be
maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on
southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied
by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and
increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale
ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection
capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf
coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night.

..Kerr.. 01/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120554
SWODY2
SPC AC 120553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday.
However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across
much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface
low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf
coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore.
However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic
profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability
(generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River
eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may
approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 140630
SWODY2
SPC AC 140628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern
Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across
most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity
for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible
just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas,
in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast.
Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the
need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 160639
SWODY2
SPC AC 160637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern
Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense
midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley,
with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region
through early Saturday.

Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture
to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s
F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s
F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into
central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast
soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting
surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will
support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg).
Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine
River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening
into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential.
However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the
front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support
a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast
LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 170550
SWODY2
SPC AC 170548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on
Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico
across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase
with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push
across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface
winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as
southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf
Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be
strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring
drying aloft.

That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front
may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across
parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level
moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well
as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts.
At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization
precludes any low severe probabilities.

Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across
much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to
coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions.

..Jewell.. 01/17/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 180637
SWODY2
SPC AC 180635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during
the day across central Florida.

...Central FL during the day Sunday...
Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded
mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the
Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses
southeastward across the FL peninsula during the day. Some increase
in low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front during the day,
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in the
70s. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and buoyancy will
remain limited (MLCAPE will likely peak in the 500-750 J/kg range).
The combination of weak buoyancy and sufficiently long, relatively
straight hodographs will support low potential for organized storms
in a band along the cold front, perhaps with strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 01/18/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 190634
SWODY2
SPC AC 190633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the
CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow
aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high
pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk
of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist
north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft
should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential.

..Jewell.. 01/19/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will stretch from the upper Great
Lakes into the southern High Plains Tuesday morning, and will
progress toward the East Coast by 12Z Wednesday. Behind this wave,
another lobe of vorticity will drop south across the Rockies and
toward the Plains late.

At the surface, a strong high pressure ridge will extend from the
Great Basin all the way to the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning, with
this high consolidating across the eastern states and toward the
lower MS Valley overnight. Another area of high pressure will
develop southward across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies,
in association with the second upper wave.

While 60s F dewpoints will remain from the FL Straits toward the
Bahamas, little destabilization is expected over the mainland.
Thunderstorms may occur over parts of the central Gulf of Mexico
along the surging cold front, with little impact to land expected.

..Jewell.. 01/20/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 210450
SWODY2
SPC AC 210448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS
on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in
the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over
the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and
western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front
over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast
to remain off the FL Peninsula.

Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the
Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of
high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday
morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus
maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period.

..Jewell.. 01/21/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 230627
SWODY2
SPC AC 230626

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday.

...Synopsis...
An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower
Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will
quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal
flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS,
allowing warming aloft.

High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states
through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the
Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across
the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of
thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle.

Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward
across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the
Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold,
but little instability is forecast to support any
convection/lightning.

..Jewell.. 01/23/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 240701
SWODY2
SPC AC 240659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of
central and east Texas Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a
belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of
central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is
forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain
throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift
along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability
is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop.

..Broyles.. 01/24/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 250659
SWODY2
SPC AC 250657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower
Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast
on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the
western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s
F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front
is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during
the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into
southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for
severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the
lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period.

..Broyles.. 01/25/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 260656
SWODY2
SPC AC 260654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower
Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat
is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the
start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a
mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern
California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or
Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/26/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 270640
SWODY2
SPC AC 270638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday
or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on
Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of
the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will
take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday
into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of
precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower
development will be possible near the Red River along the northern
edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be
insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280702
SWODY2
SPC AC 280700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of
the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move
eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern
Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the
south-central U.S. ahead of this system.

At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in
response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the
development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the
second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly
elevated convective development through the second half of the
period.

...Central Texas...
Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday
atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak
elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise
increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm
activity to occur after dark.

While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints)
will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country
region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability
occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a
persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief
tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area.
Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are
expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE.

..Goss.. 01/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290702
SWODY2
SPC AC 290700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern
Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern
Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday,
crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the
Ozarks through 31/12Z.

At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern
Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with
time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages
of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas
early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area
through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across
Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the
end of the period.

...East Texas to western Mississippi...
As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly
low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially
modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana.
Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but
low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak
surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front.

Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the
period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level
moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based,
potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will
increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon
and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time.
While the meager instability should temper the overall risk,
favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region
will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering
substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere.

The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded
within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening
before weakening overnight.

..Goss.. 01/29/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300656
SWODY2
SPC AC 300654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of
the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged
to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the
eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this
feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast.

At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the
New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross
the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore
overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the
end of the period.

...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia...
Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing
Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary
layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon
may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve.
Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few
stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more
substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for
severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late
afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and
associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

..Goss.. 01/30/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 310656
SWODY2
SPC AC 310654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday.

...Discussion...
As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the
period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through
Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada
coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward
across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime.

At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across
southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts
eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the
period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida
Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the
western Atlantic sags southward with time.

With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little
thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts
of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this
region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but
lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the
U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no
thunder areas will be included for this forecast.

..Goss.. 01/31/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020659
SWODY2
SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday.

...Discussion...
A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day
2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with
time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and
retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly
cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In
response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S.,
and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states.

At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern
Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and
Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near
the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to
the southern Plains.

While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the
southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient
to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile,
Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove
hostile to deep convection.

Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will
likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded
lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential
however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area
at this time.

..Goss.. 02/02/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030703
SWODY2
SPC AC 030702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with
a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration
expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave
trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and
the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains
to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across
the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over
the southern Plains.

Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the
period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However,
not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this
time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions
of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave
feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating
any need for a thunder area.

..Goss.. 02/03/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040709
SWODY2
SPC AC 040708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across
portions of the Mid South Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded
short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and
into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this
occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east
baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during
the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley
region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South
region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter
half of the period.

...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity...
Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and
evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing
mid-level wave.

While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air
will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across
the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial
CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a
few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid
evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be
capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels
locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear
sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation.

..Goss.. 02/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050702
SWODY2
SPC AC 050700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.

...Discussion...
Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with
the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward --
and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will
cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period.
Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of
the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward
across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the
period -- emerge into the Plains.

At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central
Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while
the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across
the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period.

Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the
start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the
period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward.
However, weak instability forecast across the region should
substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it
appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving
over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing
hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter
appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area.

..Goss.. 02/05/2025

$$

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